We’re back! Unlike Serhat Temel, the Turkish flight attendant who applied for asylum in the Netherlands after landing … perhaps the summer’s best political retort: ‘Ben Serhat gidiyorum.’
But we never really went away. Our in-depth reports landed in your inbox each week and it was quite a line up. In case you missed it:
Paul Osterlund covered the nation’s rolling meth surge.
Wouter Massink wrote about dwindling financial aid for disabled citizens.
Matt Hanson profiled Turkey’s first “Green noble prize” winner.
Borzou Daragahi traced İbrahim Kalın’s path from academia to spy chief.
Also, Gonca Tokyol and Ingrid Woudwijk conducted a months-long investigation into the post-quake legal struggles faced by Antakya residents.
Where else are you going to find a summer reading list like that? Bahhh, it’s good to see you, too.
Before we start, some news from us:
We’ve been institutionalized! Not because the Turkey news cycle drove us mad, but because it slowed down enough this month for us to … drumroll … establish a non-profit organization.
It’s called the Kolektif Medya Derneği, or Collective Media Association, and we’re excited to announce the founding members include our editorial team – Gonca Tokyol, Ingrid Woudwijk, Verda Uyar and, myself, Diego Cupolo – along with three advisors: journalist Arzu Geybulla, media rights lawyer Veysel Ok and media studies Prof. Orhan Şener Deliormanlı.
Four years after establishing the Turkey recap newsletter, we’ve laid the groundwork to keep expanding our coverage with aims to support and elevate journalists in Turkey, where press freedom and the media business in general is not great, as you might have heard.
And while establishing an association is not going to solve everything, we can at least try to develop sustainable models for independent media along the way.
Turkey recap was built one pun at a time along with credible, balanced reporting that has been supported by readers like you, and a few small grants that helped us create a Turkish-language counterpart and in-depth reports.
We’ve grown a lot. Our average readership tops 50,000 unique visits per month and to keep growing we’re getting official, meaning we now have a small office and the added expenses that come with our new status. The goal is to create more high-quality English and Turkish-language coverage of Turkey and provide journalists the space to do just that.
To achieve both, we’re raising a pay wall. This issue – #177 – is the last free recap. Starting Sept. 7, only paid subscribers will get our full weekly recaps along with biweekly members-only reports from me and access to our members-only Slack channel.
If you’re already a paid subscriber, you don’t have to do anything, and we thank you deeply. Free subscribers will continue getting our occasional reports and future Turkish-language newsletters (when we secure more funding).
To become a paid subscriber, sign up here on Substack or on Patreon, where we offer more options like a discounted tier for readers in Turkey and a one-week discount on our basic Proton membership. TLDR: Sign up now to lock in the lower price.
Thank you again to everyone who has backed this platform since 2019. We’re just getting started.
– Diego Cupolo
Person of Interest
Over the past month, Turkey deepened its economic policy U-turn. “The wind will blow to our advantage,” said Finance Min. Şimşek and we just hope this is not what he meant.
Turkey’s Central Bank began rolling back the FX protection scheme introduced in late 2021, and is believed to have since cost the treasury some $117bn.
More recently, the CB’s monetary policy committee increased the interest rate for the third-month in a row last week, to 25 per cent, the highest increase since the new economic team changed tack in June. CB head Erkan signaled the trend was likely to continue for some time.
And the implications are already being felt. The hike resulted in Turkish stocks jumping while prompting the lira to also make some gains against the USD. But these moves come with costs.
According to economist Daron Acemoğlu, as long as institutional reforms are not implemented, the recent measures will remain insufficient in tackling inflation, poverty and unemployment.
Official data shows annual inflation jumping to almost 50 percent (or 122.8 percent according to independent calculations) in July, with the highest seen in restaurant and hospitality prices. As a result, the CB increased its year-end inflation forecast to 58 percent, up from 22.3 percent.
Turkey’s economic growth has also slowed, though lower than anticipated as official data published today (Thursday), indicated Turkey’s GDP grew by 3.8% in Q2 2023, mainly due to a rise in household spending.
Natural election
Turkey is a country known for its blue waters, historical heritage and ... its never-ending election cycles. Many of us are still trying to overcome the effects of the last one, yet another election – for municipalities – is around the corner.
İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his peer, Mansur Yavaş, from Ankara announced their intention to enter the race and keep their positions. Yet the ittifak – the alliance behind them last time – is no longer a thing, and it’s still not clear if the opposition parties will support joint candidates in İstanbul and Ankara this time around.
Earlier in August month, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli called on his former brothers and sisters in the İYİ Party to "be neighbors in the local government in favor of the country". İYİ Party rejected, and giving the final word, party head Meral Akşener offered to enter elections without alliances this past Saturday – which both AKP and MHP did not welcome.
During her speech, Akşener also repeatedly apologized for the election loss and "not being able to fight more with the ones who only cared about their seats." Yet even though her criticism was harsh, the İYİ Party head didn't close the doors completely for possible joint candidates later on.
Meanwhile, the CHP will be in wait-and-see mode as they "find a way to have a dialogue," according to the party's VP Eren Erdem.
"The CHP is a party open to options and wants to win," Erdem told BBC Türkçe. "It would not be right for us to turn this into a polemic … We will sit and talk, and maybe we can have an alternative formula independent of the alliance system."
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin was expected to visit Turkey this month to sort out the grain deal and other bilateral matters. That didn’t happen – possibly for the reasons below – and it now looks like Putin will direct his first post-arrest warrant visit to China.
In the meantime, Turkish FM Hakan Fidan is slated to meet with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov today in Moscow, potentially paving the way for an Erdoğan-Putin meeting in Sochi next week.
MEI’s Gönül Tol sums up Turkey’s grain deal dilemma in detail, but long story short: Ankara wants to keep the grain flowing to keep the Black Sea region stable – a balancing act on a knife’s edge after a Russian warship fired warning shots at a cargo ship earlier this month.
But since then, the first ship to use Ukraine’s grain corridor arrived safely in İstanbul on Aug. 18, the same day two US warships were parked nearby. And on Aug. 28, the US and Turkey held their largest joint military exercises in seven years, taken by some as a sign of improving relations, though Selim Koru has more to say about that in our Weekend reads.
In other foreign affairs news: The Turkish parliament interrupted summer recess with two special sessions, neither of which addressed Sweden’s NATO bid – a process that remains in limbo amid ongoing Quran burnings.
And apart from the whole Disney+ shift-show over its Atatürk series, this very hot August also raised blood pressures in North Cyprus, where bulldozers rammed UN peacekeeping vehicles attempting to prevent construction work in the buffer zone.
In response, MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli uploaded a video with his boots on, which depending on the subreddit that hosts it, could require a NSFW label.
A separate nationalist trigger came when scientists discovered two new types of moles in eastern Turkey.
Having been out of the news for a while, Zafer party supporters decided to make headlines by coloring in a Turkish flag with their blood.
To keep everything else out of the news, the İstanbul Governor’s Office kinda-sorta issued an alcohol ban in public areas before walking back comments.
Next culture war: Teacher uniforms for women.
Speed reads
Turkey tops global ranking of housing price inflation in Q1 2023 (Bianet)
Turkey’s earthquakes turned this town into ‘nothing.’ Can it be saved? (WP)
VOA website banned in Turkey for lack of broadcast license (VOA)
Years of coal plant expansion torment Turkey's villagers (AFP)
Turkey sets new national temperature record, soaring to 50 degrees celsius (Duvar)
In İstanbul, revered shrines receive the wishes and woes of a modern city (NYT)
'Animals are thirsty': Dust and bones on Turkey's shrinking lake (AFP)
Controversial police chief known for harsh stance against protestors removed from key post (Duvar)
Turkey’s halt on Iraqi oil exports is shaking up global markets (FP)
Weekend reads
NATO’s Prodigal Son Is Not Returning
Delivering a correction on narratives suggesting Turkey is ‘tilting back to the west’ after June’s NATO summit, analyst Selim Koru argues the nation ultimately wants independence from Western allies, adding: “Erdoğan is existentially and ferociously opposed to Western geopolitical dominance.” (WOTR)
Erdoğan the Survivor
Writing “few will admit it”, but “a soft bigotry of low expectations” lurks beneath the surface of the US strategy toward Turkey, analyst Henri Barkey argues Washington is now in a “favorable position to shape the long-term future of the relationship to its advantage.” (Foreign Affairs)
Türkiye in the MENA Region: A Foreign Policy Reset
Several scholars examine Turkey’s foreign policy in the MENA region in this report edited by Valeria Talbot. The study underlines how evolving regional dynamics and domestic needs have pushed Turkey to deescalate tensions and normalize relations with regional powers from Israel to Gulf countries. (ISPI)
Unraveling Turkish involvement in the Sahel
Cligendael’s Andrew Lebovich and Nienke van Heukelingen look at Turkey’s growing involvement in the Sahel, noting Ankara seeks to improve trade relations with and enhance its influence in the region through arms sale, infrastructure projects, cultural programs and humanitarian aid. (Clingendael)
Building back better with gender in mind: Centering Turkey’s women and girls in earthquake recovery
Academic Burcu Sarı Karademir argues gender-blind development policies leave women and girls behind and exacerbate their vulnerabilities before, during, and after disasters, writing: “Because of the gendered division of labor and care work, the burden falls disproportionately on the shoulders of women and there is an urgent need to address these problems. ”(MEI)
** Listen to the Turkey Book Talk podcast for deep dives with authors and researchers on Turkish politics, culture and history. New episodes biweekly. Subscribe here **
Week ahead
Sep 4 TurkStat publishes inflation statistics for Aug 2023
Sep 4 Erdoğan expected to meet Putin in Sochi
Sep 5 Trial of journalist Hayko Bağdat resumes in İstanbul
Sep 6 Trial of journalist Ruşen Takva begins in Hakkâri
Sep 7 Trial of journalist Mansur Çelik resumes in Ankara
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Turkey recap is an independent news platform produced by the Kolektif Medya Derneği, an İstanbul-based non-profit association founded by our editorial team to support and elevate news media and journalists in Turkey.
Send feedback, queries and pitches to info@turkeyrecap.com.
Diego Cupolo, Editor-in-chief @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, Editor-at-large @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, Managing editor @deingrid
Verda Uyar, Digital growth manager @verdauyar
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