Bin There, Spun That
Issue #126
Summertime is here! And while news trends point to a summer of this-content (look out below), that can’t stop us from dreaming up brighter times with AI-generated images.
ICYMI: Read Gonca Tokyol’s inaugural Recap report on Turkish political parties’ refugee policies. More to come.
Erdoğan and MBS aren’t looking for handouts, but it seems they’ll take each other’s extended hands to help break their mutual isolation (considering this was the prince’s first tour outside the Gulf region in over three years.)
You know what happened to Jamal Khashoggi and how Erdoğan led an international campaign against the Saudi government. You also know that, in April, an İstanbul court paused the trial of 26 suspects linked to the murder and transferred it to Riyadh, followed by an Erdoğan state visit the same month.
Bilateral relations are now expected to enter “full normalization,” an unnamed senior Turkish official told Reuters. That includes lifting trade and flight restrictions between the nations, and possibly a break in negative news coverage, though the photo above suggests we’re not quite there yet.
While many observers argue this “Reiset” aims to boost Turkey’s economy ahead of 2023 elections, the same anonymous source told Reuters negotiations on a possible currency swap line were not moving “as fast as desired.” Still, the return of Saudi tourists can’t hurt, along with the various investments outlined in yesterday’s bilateral agreement.
But something else might be brewing, as Eurasia Group’s Ayham Kamel argued the MBS tour was “designed to cement Riyadh’s regional role and expand reconciliation efforts” ahead of Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia next month. Kamel also noted the Ankara-Riyadh rapprochement could help boost Turkey’s ties with Egypt. We’ll Sisi you in that email chain soon.
– Diego Cupolo
Like the waves down on the besieged
The brutal murder of Pınar Gültekin sparked a wave of anger and protests back in 2020. On Wednesday, a Muğla court reduced the aggravated life sentence given to her murderer, Cemal Metin Avcı, to 23 years in jail, citing “unjust provocation.” The Gültekin family lawyer expects him to serve only 14 years now.
The move was met with a new wave of outrage from a range of parties and people, as many saw the verdict as yet another example of the state protecting perpetrators and putting blame on their victims, something that was voiced today (Thursday) as well, just before the fourth Council of State hearing started on the İstanbul Convention withdrawal case.
While women’s groups were allowed to protest in response this week, all activities related to the İstanbul Pride Week were banned in Beyoğlu and Kadıköy. A Pride picnic Friday was also canceled after attacks by an Islamist group. Crackdowns on the unauthorized mixture of colors materialized in Ankara as well, where an African restaurant had to repaint its signboard white.
In other civil liberties news, several HDP members were detained in İstanbul. We also learned that wearing a t-shirt featuring jailed former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş can be reason for detention. Oh, and while you’re inside, do note Demirtaş bookmarks are now a “threat to prison security.”
Grain expectations
As if negotiations for NATO membership weren’t enough of a struggle for Sweden and Finland, images were shared on social media Friday showing PKK imagery projected on Stockholm’s city council, making matters worse.
The Swedish FM denounced it as a possible manipulation, but the Rojava Committee doubled down and shared more footage of the projections, prompting FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu to read it as a sign of Sweden’s flagging commitment to the “fight against terrorism.” As talks continue, the Turkish delegation seems in no hurry to reach a deal.
In related news, a Turkish delegation traveled to Russia to continue Ukraine grain corridor negotiations, but the Turkish plan has been met with skepticism.
Meanwhile, Turkey's soft stance towards Moscow and the perceptions it’s becoming a safe haven for Russian assets might create more irritation as the war drags on, as the US Deputy Treasury Sec. Wally Adeyemo visited Ankara Wednesday, reportedly to address the issue.
Turkey's economy hasn’t improved for so long that it’s starting to bring people together. In İstanbul, and probably every other city, waiting in line to buy discount municipality bread while exchanging budget shopping tips is now a daily habit for many.
"When I notice something’s cheaper in a shop, I let others know. We’re all struggling in the face of rising prices, so we try to support each other as much as we can," Ferhan Özer, a 67-years-old pensioner, told Turkey recap after buying bread. "If you’re depending on a pension or minimum wage, staying alive is not an easy thing."
Erdoğan seems to agree with Özer, as Bloomberg reports the Labor Ministry will present him with several plans for another hike in the national minimum wage. Officials familiar with the plans said Erdoğan is expected to consider alternative hikes after the NATO summit in Madrid.
Meanwhile, ahead of Kurban Bayramı, prices for sacrificial animals have tripled. Bus and plane tickets during the holiday are also skyrocketing, with some companies refusing to sell return tickets due to fears of rising costs. Add to that Goldman Sachs’ expectations for annual inflation to reach almost 80 percent before easing to 60 percent by the end of 2022.
With so many figures going up or down sharply, at least we have one stable place: the interest rate. The Central Bank kept its key rate at 'lucky 14' Thursday, though its former chief economist Hakan Kara warned, "I can't even imagine where we will end up if current policies continue for another 12 months."
Crazy in Law
Turkish Defense Min. Hulusi Akar met his Greek counterpart Panagiotopoulos last week in Brussels to discuss rising tensions (yet again) after Ankara warned Athens to demilitarize Aegean islands near mainland Turkey, in compliance with the international treaties.
But there seems to be something lost in translation. Greek PM Mitsotakis claims international law is on his side, plunging us all further into legal ambiguity over such nice, clear waters, the division of which almost sparked a war two years ago.
Still, Mitsotakis said relations are not at 2020 levels and that Athens is keen to maintain dialogue with Turkey. After all, both nations probably don’t want to disrupt peak tourism season in the … checks notes … TurkAegean. Spoke too soon.
Keep calm and Carrie on
And in stranger pings, a televised exorcism sparked online debates and some catchy dance remixes, not to mention the show host was the son of former Ankara mayor and public arts aficionado Melih Gökçek.
We can’t tell whether demons were expelled in the process, but Hell’s Gate did open this week and should make for a soul-catching experience. No, we’re not talking about responses to Elon Musk’s gate joke.
Speed reads
Big wildfire forces evacuations near Turkish Marmaris resort (AP)
Around 800 Syrians return from Turkey weekly, U.N. refugee agency official says (Reuters)
Street artist given deferred prison sentence for insulting president (Bianet)
Turkey extends mandate for troop deployment in Libya (HDN)
Turkey ‘playing a balancing act’ between Tel Aviv and Tehran (AJ)
Senior ISIS leader captured in a region controlled by Turkey-backed groups (Bianet)
Truce ends clashes among Turkey-backed rebels in northwest Syria (Reuters)
2016 coup attempt: Court of Cassation overturns life sentences for 71 cadets (Bianet)
Weekend reads
Security Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean
In this report, analysts Aaron Stein and Leah Pedro outline key points shared by foreign policy experts on security challenges in the East Med, with one individual saying: “Changes in Turkish foreign policy could help ease the external tensions that contribute to regional instability.” (FPRI)
Building in Africa: Turkey’s “Third Way” in China’s Shadow
Detailing the increasing scope and diversification of projects managed by Turkish construction companies in Africa, MEI’s Middle East and Africa Project Director John Calabrese concludes “Turkey’s construction giants are poised to remain a significant force in Africa.” (MEI)
Turkey’s wartime bridge to the West is collapsing
Looking at Turkey’s mediator role in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Atlantic Council’s Yevgeniya Gaber argues “ time is running out” for Ankara to broker a peace deal and “mend its shattered relations with the West,” despite its confident start and the public support it garnered. (Atlantic Council).
Week ahead – together with Argonotlar
June 28 Final day of group exhibition “Normalleş(me)!“ featuring Boğaziçi student artists at Karşı Sanat Çalışmaları in Beyoğlu, İstanbul
June 30 Trial of journalist Abdurrahman Gök resumes in Diyarbakir (background)
June 30-July 2 The British Institute at Ankara hosts a hybrid online and offline conference titled “Occupied Istanbul: Urban Politics, Culture and Society, 1918-1923”
Turkey recap is supported by readers via Patreon, where members get access to our back channel, news tracking tools, calendar and more.
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Batuhan Üsküp, editorial intern @batuskup
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