Three choices: You can spend Kurban bayramı talking to either Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the congratulatory chatbot, Senai Bilir, Turkey’s first sausage-fingered AI columnist, or Monsieur Yavaş, a French mayor who looks far too familiar. Who do you choose?
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That said, there will be no recap next week. We’re taking a holiday break like normal people and will be back on July 6. İyi bayramlar!
The Central Bank hiked its key policy rate today (Thursday) from 8.5 to 15 percent – the first increase in over two years – signaling a gradual return to orthodox economic policies, though only time will tell.
While forecasts varied, analysts expected a sharper adjustment to about 20 percent. Immediately after the announcement, the Turkish lira weakened more than 2.5 percent, trading at 24.21 per USD at 14:45 local time.
In its statement Thursday, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said tightening would continue "as much as needed in a timely and gradual manner" until the 5 percent inflation target was reached.
BlueBay senior strategist Timothy Ash said the hike was disappointing on Twitter, writing: "With inflation at 40 percent, that's just not enough to convince. Erkan can say whatever she wants about more hikes coming, but after the Ağbal experience, the market will just not believe that."
Turkey’s last econ duo to raise the benchmark policy rate was Lütfi Elvan and Naci Ağbal. Considering they didn't stick around very long after that, many are still skeptical about the long-term sustainability of this apparent return-to-orthodoxy.
Despite the credibility of newly-appointed Finance Min. Mehmet Şimşek and Central Bank Gov. Hafize Gaye Erkan, “investors are likely to proceed carefully and be cautious with their money," economist M. Murat Kubilay wrote for MEI, recalling “investors who bought 10-year government bonds when Elvan and Ağbal were first appointed lost nearly … 40 percent in dollar terms in just 10 working days.”
Meanwhile, four deputy finance ministers were named just hours before the MPC meeting – all with previous experience in the Turkish bureaucracy. Yet one banker, who requested anonymity, pointed out Şimşek hasn’t brought in any new MPC members apart from Erkan, telling Reuters that it shows "he has little room to maneuver."
In other econ news, the interest rate was not the only thing that increased this week. Officials Tuesday announced another minimum wage hike, this time by 34 percent, effective July 1.
Experts expect the increase to bump up inflation, and a minimum wage earner Ali Küçükçağlayan, who works in a water distribution shop in İstanbul's Üsküdar district, told Turkey recap he doesn’t believe raising salaries can solve the nation’s problems.
"When you look at the numbers, one can think we earn some real money, but it's not the case," Küçükçağlayan said.
"They increased the minimum wage twice this year, but since the costs skyrocketed, it means nothing. I feel like I’m watching magicians when I see those ministers and others on TV. They give us something, but when we check our pockets, we see it's already gone."
– Gonca Tokyol
Pride and precipice
It’s pride week in Turkey, which means thousands of cops get to parade through central İstanbul to protect the nation’s honor – or at least Taksim Square – a task involving many, many fences and none of your favorite Madonna songs.
Sunday’s Trans pride march ended swiftly after a couple dozen demonstrators were interrupted by riot police, resulting in 10 detentions, all since released. Turkey recap was on site and captured Deputy Provincial Police Chief Hanifi Zengin adding a personal touch to at least one detention.
Right after we took those photos, a curious east Asian tourist asked us about the heavy police presence and if the detainee was being “arrested for murder”. We replied as best we could, saying the demonstration was banned, but didn’t have clickable links on hand to reference the state’s recent anti-LGBT rhetoric, concert bans, rainbow bans and attempts to normalize homophobia.
Another round of fences and offenses is expected this weekend during a broader LGBT pride parade, which raises the question: What are government officials trying to achieve by targeting LGBT activists?
Bilge Yabancı, Marie Skłodowska-Curie fellow at Northwestern Univ. and Ca’ Foscari Univ. of Venice, told Turkey recap the actions above are not aimed solely at LGBT rights communities but all rights-based civil society groups.
They are “targeting the communities they think are very vocal or [who are] mobilizing some effective activist communities, and this is intended to have ripple effects,” like silencing other activists and non-activists in the broader public.
Yabancı and lecturer Erol Sağlam recently co-authored a refreshingly nuanced article on gender norms and LGBT rights, in which they argue people and institutions in pro-gov circles can sometimes disagree with the AKP’s hardening stances on private life matters, but practice “negotiated conformism“ out of “fear of straining relations with the government.”
Underlining government supporters are not a homogenous bunch, and that mainly the more conservative factions seek to protect so-called family values and cultural norms, Yabancı said rights activists in Turkey have shown “resilience”, but will face more repression in the months to come.
“Unfortunately, the AKP will continue seizing this opportunity. I expected maybe it would drop a bit after elections because I don’t know if it really had the intended effect,” she said.
“For many AKP voters, LGBTQ issues don’t rank among the top priorities compared to many more salient issues like inflation, social provision, employment, etc. This is the strategy of this populist ‘Us vs. Them’ [approach]. They take a matter, and they create enemies out of it, and they make the issue salient for people.”
Wielding that process to the full extent, Erdoğan once again placed Kılıçdaroğlu with those created enemies in a speech Wednesday, saying: “Bay Bay Kemal, you are an LGBT supporter, and so are the people next to you. But neither the AKP nor the MHP has such a scourge. That's the difference between us.”
Them and Vilni-us
It’s been almost a year since the trilateral memorandum was signed between Turkey, Sweden and Finland, and officials are now increasing pressure on Ankara to greenlight Stockholm’s NATO bid.
While US Amb. to Turkey Jeff Flake appears less optimistic – telling Axios: "It seems unlikely that we'll see movement before Vilnius” – there’s a steady drumbeat of nudges from other western diplomats.
US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin urged Turkey to approve Sweden’s membership in a conversation with his Turkish counterpart Yaşar Güler. Sec. of State Antony Blinken "encouraged” Turkey to ratify, too, without sharing further news on his first meeting with FM Hakan Fidan.
Also Swedish FM Tobias Billstrom said now is the time for Turkey to ratify, telling reporters Wednesday: “Our judgment is that we have done what was expected of us.” Talking to Al-Monitor, a Turkish official disagreed, saying the Swedes were “making progress.”
And while Sweden is putting a man to trial for financing the PKK for the first time ever, analyst Paul Levin told Al-Monitor he believes the process will more likely depend on whether Ankara can get F16 upgrades from Washington, adding: “Sweden is unlikely to change its long tradition of liberal freedom of speech protections.”
In other NATO news, the alliance failed to approve new defense plans on how it would deal with a Russian attack. One diplomat told Reuters Turkey had blocked approval over the wording of geographical locations, including with regard to Cyprus.
Turkish politics have officially come full circle as Erdoğan labeled KK “a dictator” for not stepping down from his position, which actually expanded with some fancy new titles this week.
At the same time, opposition figures that no longer have legislative immunity are facing legal charges, including KK who has 18 proceedings against him. The former presidential candidate is not only facing terror-linked charges, but it can also be hazardous to express support for him, as one dismissed Turkish Airlines pilot found out after the fact.
On top of state pressure, KK’s insistence on staying put has led to intra-party conflict, most visibly between himself and İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Erdoğan resembled the spat to “throne fights between father and son” – a tribute to local heritage.
According to recent rumors, İmamoğlu does want the CHP throne and is conducting his own public research to gauge voter sentiments on the matter.
Speaking Tuesday at his party’s parliamentary group meeting, KK doubled-down on his record, saying he’d “establish a Table of Sixteen if necessary for Turkey to come to the light,” acting like more of a failed strategy is the solution.
This comes as jailed former HDP co-chair Figen Yüksekdağ shared regrets about informally backing KK in the presidential elections, saying the party should have run its own candidate.
Astana na na, hey hey, goodbye
The best peace process is a finished peace process. That’s at least the view from Kazakhstan, where state officials claimed Astana talks on the Syrian war reached their logical conclusion, adding they would no longer host negotiations between Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Speaking after the two-day meeting Wednesday, Kazakh Deputy FM Kanat Tumysh said the framework had achieved its goal.
"Syria's gradual emergence from isolation in the region could be regarded as a sign that the Astana process has completed its task," Tumysh told reporters.
"Taking into account Syria's return into the Arab (nations) family, we propose officially declaring the 20th meeting under the Astana process the final one."
This apparently came as a surprise to participants, who will continue multilateral talks on Syria’s post-war roadmap, much of which remains unresolved, but in another location.
Up next, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Turkey “soon” and Zafer Party head Ümit Özdağ will visit Syria in July to “show people that life is back to normal.” This comes after showing Twitter his very normal refugee catapult toy.
And there will be many dos and doughs at family gatherings this post-election bayram, but mostly doughs considering the average Turkish citizen apparently eats 200 kgs of bread a year. In other news that can serve to derail unwanted conversations at the dinner table:
A Turkish high school student took a bathroom break during an Erasmus program in Italy and escaped to apply for asylum in Germany. Guess he really had to go.
A man tried to commit suicide in Siverek, but got lynched for blocking traffic instead.
Before taking on new water projects like Kanal İstanbul, the government is looking to solve old drainage problems in Ankara by reactivating historic cisterns.
A Kurdish activists’ life sentence was upheld in court 1.5 years after she died, confirming justice is, indeed, blind.
David Bowie sang “we can be heroes”, and an İstanbul boy listened, surviving a five-story fall after trying to fly “like Spider-Man”.
Speed reads
Turkish drone strike kills 2 Kurdish local officials and their driver in north Syria, officials say (AP)
Top business group chair demands Turkey’s return to İstanbul Convention (Duvar)
Parliamentary questions check into the ongoing reconstruction in quake-hit Hatay (Bianet)
Top Turkish court rejects request to block Treasury aid paid to HDP (Duvar)
Over 26,000 Turkish citizens sought asylum in Europe in the past 5.5 months (GN)
Imam of illegal madrassa where 12-year-old found dead released from detention (Duvar)
Turkish journalist Sinan Aygül attacked by Tatvan Mayor's guards over corruption reporting (Duvar)
Turkey's public broadcaster sparks controversy with new series portraying Kavala as 'villain' (Bianet)
Midnight music ban lifted only in Antalya province (Duvar)
Weekend reads
The “Shadow” Foreign Minister Steps into the Light: Hakan Fidan Enters the Cabinet
Reviewing the career of Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s spy chief-turned-FM, researcher Reuben Silverman notes: “Pro-government media argue that Fidan’s appointment will contribute to more ‘holistic’ governance and ‘consolidate’ Turkey’s ‘foreign policy orientation,’ but it could also lead to turf battles” with İbrahim Kalın. (Turkey Analyst)
Will the Turkish government change the course of its economic policy?
A handful of analysts offer forecasts for Turkey’s economic policies and relations with Russia, among which academic Evren Balta writes: “Substantial changes in Turkey-Russia relations will require a shared foreign policy stance from the Western alliance in addressing regional challenges.” (CATS)
The Black Sea as Mare Clausum
Noting the Black Sea is a closed to outside naval powers, analysts Daria Isachenko and Göran Swistek make the case for giving Turkey more responsibility in shaping regional security, while underlining Ankara’s foreign policy will keep swinging between “deterrence and dialogue vis-à-vis Russia.” (SWP)
A blueprint for Turkey’s resilient reconstruction and recovery post-earthquake
Urban sustainability and climate consultant Karim Elgendy stresses the need for sustainable reconstruction, writing: “The long-term cost of failing to address [the risk of hasty construction] is nothing short of a failure to protect the surviving earthquake victims and other residents from future disasters.” (AC)
Weeks ahead (We’re off for bayram)
Jun 23 Trial of the Boğaziçi LGBTI+ studies club resumes in İstanbul
Jun 23 Trial of Cihan Kolivar, president of the Bread Producers Union, resumes in İstanbul
Jun 28-Jul 1 The Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha aka Kurban Bayramı in Turkey
Jun 29 The Ottoman and Turkish Studies Association hosts a webinar titled "Red Star over the Black Sea: Nazım Hikmet & His Generation" at 1600 GMT.
Jul 3 TurkStat publishes inflation statistics for June 2023
Jul 4 Trial of photojournalist Zeynep Kuray resumes in İstanbul
Jul 5 Trial of journalist Hayri Demir resumes in Ankara
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk