Welcome to electoral purgatory, a place to repent before reaching the after-vote life.
To make sense of where we are and where we’re going, join our next live Q+A with political scientist Berk Esen titled “Pre-election Projections: Round Two” on May 24 at 1700 GMT.
In the meantime, watch our post-vote Q+A with Alan Makovsky, a Turkey analyst and former US state department official. And check this handy guide on the foreign policy priorities of Turkey’s leading parties by Ingrid Woudwijk and Diego Cupolo.
A befitting final season for the presidential election is loading after an intense campaign period. Following a last-minute dropout from the race, the life-threatening process that is voting in Turkey and perhaps the longest night ever to be an election observer, Turkey’s next president will be determined in a run-off election on May 28.
That said, the first round had all the essentials: multiple allegations of dış mihraklar (foreign meddling), early celebrations, concerns over security and the integrity of votes, criticism of how state-run Anadolu Agency shared results, both candidates claiming victory to be within reach and even a balcony speech with off-tune singing.
But one thing was a surprise – despite a four-point lead and a ruling alliance majority in parliament – Pres. Erdoğan’s perfomance was less stellar than in previous years. Regardless, he received congratulations calls from allies.
According to preliminary results – which will be confirmed by the Supreme Electoral Board (YSK) Friday – Erdoğan’s share of the vote stood at 49.5 percent and his main opponent Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu got 44.8 percent. The scenario is nowhere near what polls and experts were predicting.
With neither candidate securing the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright win (a constitutional requirement Erdoğan seeks to amend by the way), Turkish voters will get to a second round election for the first time under the presidential system established in 2018.
Of the 64.1 million people eligible to vote, the turnout Sunday was 88.9 percent, the highest voting rate seen under two decades of AKP rule.
The AKP-MHP alliance is expected to take 323 seats in total, down from 344 won in the previous election. Kılıçdaroğlu’s CHP increased its votes by 3 percent, which translated to fewer seats due to shared MP lists with smaller parties in the opposition alliance. As per the unofficial results, 121 female and 4 radical Islamist HÜDA PAR MPs also made it in. Seating arrangements to be resolved.
The campaign period for the next presidential race kicked off Monday, and both candidates are now urging supporters to go to vote again.
After failing to grasp a parliamentary majority, the opposition faces a serious challenge in delivering their pledge to undo Erdoğan’s legacy. Also, considering the original opposition slogan #ilkturdabitilelim (Let’s finish it in the first round) is no longer an option, Kılıçdaroğlu introduced a new campaign: Türkiye için #KararVer (Decide for Turkey).
During a presser earlier today (Thursday), Kılıçdaroğlu reiterated his promise to send all refugees back and denied allegations of terrorism links. While commemorating the former Grey Wolf chairman Sinan Ateş, who was assassinated last year, and accusing Erdoğan of FETÖ links, Kılıçdaroğlu called on “all those that love their nation to vote.” We were expecting him to howl at some point in the speech.
Both candidates now aim to lure voters from ultranationalist third-party candidate Sinan Oğan, who has criticized the presidential contenders, mainly over their stances on the Kurdish issue. Details follow below.
Some argue Oğan is more likely to end up backing Erdoğan, but Kılıçdaroğlu is trying to play every card he holds before Oğan declares an expected decision tomorrow (Friday).
As for Erdoğan, he’s expected to ride his momentum into the second round and to clinch another term. But nothing is set in stone and the current dynamics are full of political uncertainty with impacts beyond domestic politics.
– Verda Uyar
Quake zone voting
"This city was a rose garden," said Ali Kandemir in Hatay to VOA a few days before the elections. "Now the city is gone."
For Kandemir and others, they intended to show their anger at the voting booth, but for many others, that’s also where they continued their unwavering support for Erdoğan. This ambivalence was reflected in the results coming from Hatay: 48.80 percent of votes went to KK, and 48.03 percent to Erdoğan.
While KK led the race in Adana, Diyarbakır and Hatay, Erdoğan had the upper hand in 8 of the 11 provinces in the earthquake zone. Yet support for Reis declined in almost every province compared to the 2018 elections, and his AKP lost vote shares in all except Diyarbakır.
MHP's vote share also decreased in all quake provinces, and even so, AKP votes mostly went to smaller parties in the Cumhur İttifakı, like Yeniden Refah and BBP. CHP's rising support in the region translated into four additional seats in the parliament.
According to the interim results, AKP and HDP/YSP were the main losers in the earthquake zone regarding parliamentary seats. AKP lost one MP in Hatay, Maraş and Kilis each, and the Green Left Party lost one seat in Adana, Diyarbakır and Hatay each. İYİ Party and TİP both won new seats in Hatay.
Turnout was higher than expected in the area, at more than 80 percent, even in the worst affected cities. But people are still in limbo for the second round. Thousands of people went back to their towns to vote on May 14, and a similar organization will be needed again.
Apart from individual attempts to organize returns, it seems like the opposition has no central plan in the works. On the other hand, Erdoğan announced that he would be in the earthquake zone this weekend during the CNN Türk/Kanal D joint broadcast.
Dismissed as the least important candidate not long ago, suddenly all eyes are on Oğan, who got 5.17 percent of the votes Sunday.
While many call him the kingmaker, Aaron Stein noted on Twitter, the actual kingmaker is Reis himself, and he doesn’t necessarily need Oğan to win.
Two Oğan voters told Turkey recap they had already made their choices for the second round, with one voter choosing KK and the other RTE. One of them said other Oğan supporters were evenly split, or undecided, raising questions regarding Oğan’s actual sway on his backers.
In any case, Oğan is aiming high, not only setting conditions on refugees, the HDP and HÜDA PAR, but he also requested a very senior position for himself in return for an endorsement, as he told NYT.
In the same newspaper, a DEVA official said they would begin targeting Oğan voters soon. In KK’s anti-migrant video Wednesday, he falsely claimed – just like Oğan earlier – that Turkey hosts over 10 million refugees, in contrast to official statistics and for which no proof or calculations are given.
While the message in itself is not new – he previously vowed to send refugees back within two years – the tone was more aggressive and marks a shift away from the inclusive, positive, heart-emoji KK we saw till Sunday.
Meanwhile in parliament, nationalism has already won. Maybe not because of this Bahçeli rap, and also despite this picture, but the MHP unexpectedly gained one more seat in parliament. With Yeniden Refah getting 2.81 percent of the parliamentary votes, the number of far-right MPs in the parliament is growing.
“The results show that Erdoğan and his allies successfully bolstered the incumbent’s support with strong messaging on terrorism, security, and family values—even as the economy continued to top voter concerns,” Eurasia Group’s Emre Peker argues in a note to clients.
Nothing to see, dear
In many ways, the Turkish elections were a preview of 21st-century democratic hazards best illustrated by the equation:
Voters ÷ deep fakes x social media - (centralized power ^ tech mogul) = will of the people.
Add a large dose of confusion with allegations of mass voting fraud, as we saw Tuesday, and welcome to the grave new world. As in past elections, opposition parties objected to ballot count irregularities, which is normal, and most were resolved without major impacts on election outcomes.
There are many alleged irregularities and accounts aiming to document them, but as journalists, we have to put official comments above speculation until more evidence comes to light.
Though some foul play is likely, Muharrem Erkek, CHP deputy chair for legal and election affairs, told reporters Wednesday objections involved one percent of ballot boxes and would not “change the general results.”
Still, there’s plenty to raise EU concern, from blocked content on Twitter to the detention of 10 Spanish election observers. The question is how much actual concern is there and what to do about it? In its preliminary report, the OSCE election observation mission stated:
“The incumbent president and the ruling parties enjoyed an unjustified advantage,” and “The election administration technically managed elections efficiently, but there was a lack of transparency and communication,” calling for improvements in the future.
As interpreted by now interim speaker of Turkish parliament and MHP head Devlet Bahçeli, that means: “The Turkish people have given a lesson of democracy to the entire world.” The MFA statement is not much different. TLDR: this meme, see you in 2024.
Darkest before Erdoğan
Among the many post-election forecasts, few are as dark as Turkey’s economic projections, though this Taylan Bilgiç thread comes close. After pre-vote market optimism, Turkish stocks fell this week, along with the lira’s value, trading at 19.79 per dollar at noon today.
In response, Turkey’s central bank is “moving in full force to defend the lira” before the second vote, Bloomberg reports, introducing a “relentless stream of new regulations” aiming to deter demand for dollars.
The tinkering is expected to create pent-up demand for FX, which could see the lira weakening further in the post-vote period. Forecasting the lira’s trajectory, Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the Teneo consultancy, told Turkey recap:
“The government will likely try to get incrementally to a new equilibrium at 24-25 on the USD. Turkey's exporters have asked for such a devaluation for some time.”
Taking a broader perspective, Piccoli said a seemingly likely victory for Erdoğan would mean a continuation of existing policies.
“As done after previous elections, Ankara will pledge to pass structural reforms, reset ties with the US and relaunch its EU membership bid. None of these moves will actually be undertaken.”
“As part of this window-dressing exercise, Erdoğan could even appoint individuals in key economic positions who enjoy the trust of the markets. But just like in recent years, the shelf-life of these ‘useful idiots’ will depend on Erdoğan’s whims.”
“A partial – and/or temporary – adjustment of economic policymaking would be implemented only if pressure brings financial stability to the brink.”
In other economic news, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its 2023 growth forecast for Turkey from 3 percent to 2.5 percent Tuesday, and Daron Acemoğlu has a new Twitter account, which he used to express concern, yes, on Turkey’s post-election economy.
Rakı’n’Roll
And here’s some cheap laughs from the internet because you can’t afford to drink rakı till May 28:
Influencers seem more ready for elections than the muhalefet.
Le Monde mixed up île with il, kickstarting this summer’s Aegean drama.
There was no other way to build this corn statue in Alibeyköy.
One does not simply walk into a police corridor. One must be man-bun-handled.
Speed reads
Erdoğan takes the lead through culture wars and soft authoritarianism (WP)
Black Sea grain deal extended for two months (Reuters)
Raid on Turkish journalists in Germany angers Ankara (DW)
Average household size, total fertility rate for Türkiye decreases (HDN)
Whoever wins, the refugees will lose (LRB)
Antalya top spot for foreigners in house purchases, Russians rank first (Duvar)
Turkey: Nine Kurdish journalists released (GN)
Greece's Alexandroupolis port gets $26 million EU funding (Reuters)
Weekend reads
With Erdoğan Just Short of Another Victory, This Election Is Not Over Until It’s Over
In a concise summary of the Turkish elections so far, Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı shares some criticisms of the opposition, writing they didn’t effectively counter Erdoğan’s smear campaigns and “spent months on a comprehensive government program” that proved to be of “little interest” to voters. (GMF)
Turkey’s toxic dust
In a deep investigation on the toxic materials released after the earthquakes, Reuters interviewed health professionals who warn of harmful consequences, writing: “Some experts said a ‘secondary disaster’ of toxic contamination could be even more severe than the quakes themselves.” (Reuters)
Why One Upscale Apartment Building Became a Death Trap
After speaking to many residents and taking a thorough look at the collapse of the Renaissance Residence in Antakya, a team of NYT journalists concluded: “The death toll at Renaissance, the site of one of the deadliest building collapses in the quake, was the tragic result of flawed design and minimal oversight.” (NYT)
İstanbul Gets Caught Between Housing Crunch and Earthquake Risk
Showing how İstanbul renters weigh safety against affordability, Jennifer Hattam reports on dilemmas made worse by poor urban planning, writing: “Of the 496 open spaces around the city designated after the 1999 disaster as earthquake gathering areas, only 77 remain.” (Bloomberg)
Week ahead
May 18 The Foundation for Defense of Democracies hosts a webinar titled "Turkey’s Elections: A Contested and Uncertain Outcome" at 14:15 GMT
May 19 Commemoration of Atatürk, Youth and Sports Day
May 19-21 The İstanbul Caravan Festival takes place in Sylos
May 23 Trial of journalist Sultan Eylem Keleş resumes in İstanbul
May 24 Turkey recap hosts a livestream Q+ A titled “Pre-election Projections: Round Two” with Berk Esen at 1700 GMT.
May 24 Trial of musician Ferhat Tunç resumes in İstanbul
May 25 Central Bank announces interest rate decision
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk