If we analyze global affairs through Turkish ice cream gifs, trends put us at the tipping point between Erdoğan-Sweden gifs and Erdoğan-Putin gifs.
This means two things: A lot of ice cream is flipping around and Macron’s diagnosis was half right. The latest data shows NATO is, in fact, experiencing a brain freeze.
Speaking of treats, do read Gonca Tokyol’s and Ingrid Woudwijk’s report on how displaced chefs from Antakya continue to share their favorite Antiochian dishes and love for food in İstanbul.
"We want this process to end as soon as possible,” but first we’ll go on summer holiday for two months.
That’s pretty much where Sweden’s NATO bid stands after Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statements Wednesday. Yes, he agreed Monday to drop his veto and send parliament the ratification paperwork, but they’re going on break tomorrow, so what can he do?
“It’s not like you push a button and the next day everything happens,” Akif Çağatay Kılıç, the president’s chief foreign policy advisor, told Nikkei.
Actually, we checked, and Erdoğan has made many things happen with the push of a button, like putting satellites into service, appointing 45,000 teachers and inaugurating a church.
Long story short, after this week’s NATO summit photo ops and promises, Sweden’s accession bid essentially stands at square one, as it did on May 18, 2022, when the application was submitted along with Finland to be “fast-tracked” by allies.
At the time, NATO Sec. Gen. Jens Stoltenberg said Turkey had “clearly indicated its intention not to block” either bid. A month later, we returned to square one with the Madrid declaration and, a year on, Stockholm is still there with the latest assurances from Erdoğan.
NATO accession has become Sweden’s Groundhog Day, where each day the nation wakes up to start the process from scratch, trapped in an infinite time loop until it satisfies all of Ankara’s conditions, and maybe helps Turkey get EU membership, too.
It’s not over till it’s over, and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson knows it. That’s why he drank beer Monday instead of champagne. Sure, a lot has changed in the process: Finland is in, Sweden changed its constitution, an F-16 deal is kinda in the works and Biden’s social media team gave Erdoğan a free sample video, but the saga continues.
To get a sense of how Swedish society has viewed all this, we talked to Ülkü Holago, a journalist who works for Sweden’s national broadcaster (SVT) among other outlets.
“Swedes, if I may generalize, have a more trusting attitude,” Holago told Turkey recap, adding a colleague asked her: “‘Where is the logical linearity in this?’ And I’m like, ‘No, Burası Türkiye, This is Turkey, you can’t know.’”
For Sweden, Holago said the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the NATO bid have not only ended the nation’s non-alignment stance, but have also started discussions on once entrenched free speech principles, with a recent poll showing a slight majority of Swedes now believe it’s wrong to burn a Quran.
Aron Lund, a Middle East researcher at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, whose views do not reflect or represent those of the Swedish government, agreed there has been a mood change, which may or may not eventually materialize in further legislative changes.
“I think there will be in Sweden, more generally, less of a willingness to go out on a limb for foreign causes or diaspora lobbying or issues that are not close to Sweden’s national security interests,” Lund told Turkey recap.
“There’s a hierarchy of interest here, right? Getting into NATO, according to the current view, is seen as really important, and we need to get that done. Complaining about Turkey’s behavior in Syria, you know, we might want to do it, but it’s not on the same level of importance.”
Looking forward, even the end is not the end, as Lund noted the completion of Sweden’s accession process would simply place Stockholm-Ankara ties in a new format.
“There’s still going to be a give and take with Turkey,” he continued. “It’s an alliance that has a lot of consensus-based decision making to do. Appointments and plans and all sorts of things where Sweden and Turkey might still need to find a way to cooperate.”
Up next: EU foreign ministers will discuss Turkey during a Foreign Affairs Council meeting on July 20. Let’s see who makes the first move of consequence. More assurances will just bring us back to 6:00 am, May 18, 2022.
– Diego Cupolo
Quake zone updates
When Turkey recap last visited the earthquake zone, summer was on the way, many locals were complaining about snakes and camped-out survivors were in dire need of safe accommodations and other basic needs.
During a visit this week, we can confirm those problems continue in Hatay with the addition of temperatures around 40 C.
Imagine waking up in a scorching hot tent in the morning and then spending the day surrounded by the never-ending rubble removal work without refuge from the heat and dust: this is the average life of Antakya citizens these days.
The city center currently looks like a ghost town apart from long lines in front of aid distribution points or government offices. Reconstruction efforts are limited, and rubble removal is far from over. The transportation system is long gone and doesn't seem to be coming back soon – making life unbearable for those without a car.
Locals say their needs are mounting, but little help is arriving.
"Life in container camps is relatively easier since regular water, food and aid distributions exist. Still, for those who relocated to villages or live close to their homes, it is not a life, just a struggle to survive", local journalist and Turkey recap contributor Burcu Günaydın said. "The worst part is, it seems like no one outside cares about it anymore."
Go with the flaw
News outlets during the pre-election season, including the foreign press, resembled CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu to Mahatma Gandhi. While the latter is known for his sayings on changing oneself to change the world, his doppelgänger is not even close.
“It happens. Life goes on. It flows like a river,” KK said over the weekend during a TV appeal. What looks like cheesy post-breakup advice from a friend is actually one of the first reflections he’s made on his loss back in May.
Millions have been waiting for him to take some responsibility and to make some changes, including some of his own party members. They got a Facebook post quote instead.
As for other criticism, KK is directly stopping it. After growing internal discord that saw two CHP mayors take conflicting stances ahead of the March 24 elections, CHP party members were advised not to discuss internal matters with the media and the public.
Elsewhere, Gelecek party and Saadet party are now a separate electoral alliance. The two also united their MPs under a parliamentary group and held their first meeting this week.
I think, therefore I zam
What to do when the VAT (or in Turkish K-D-V) is increased overnight, raising the prices of almost all products and services? If you’re a Turkish citizen, you can buy a phone in Georgia before the foreign phone registration fee goes from 6,000 TL to 20,000 TL.
If you’re the AKP, you can sell a mosque. Or if you’re CHP’s Mustafa Sarıgül, you can get an umbrella that protects you from zam rain.
In other economic news, Turkey witnessed more than $7 billion in mystery capital outflows in May, according to Bloomberg. The same outlet reported Finance Min. Mehmet Şimşek privately criticized the FX-protected lira deposit scheme and is looking for ways to get rid of it.
Şimşek also announced he aims to decrease the budget deficit, as the FT reported the deficit is expected to increase to 4.5 percent of GDP in 2023, while the unemployment rate is dropping.
The road mess traveled
And this week, we learned İstanbul bike lanes are in dire condition, meaning we learned İstanbul has bike lanes. A few more notes for the road:
Public servants probably shouldn’t drive Maseratis.
Woman motorcyclists definitely shouldn’t face these questions at the border.
Sivas is trying to get its city center on the UNESCO list, finally giving us a reason to use its new high-speed rail line.
Turkish Airlines pilots will soon be able to pray in cockpits, certain groups want to cancel festivals and the education minister proposed same-sex schools, but these news items are nothing new, just a con-din-uation of Turkey’s secular path, whether you laik it or not.
Speed reads
Turkey 'moves up' to third place in first-time asylum applications to EU in 2022 (Duvar)
Turkey ranks first in legal harassment of women journalists (CFWIJ)
Turkey's Erdoğan submits $42 billion additional budget to parliament, media report (Reuters)
Turkey says talks with China, Russia and South Korea underway for new nuclear plants (Al-Monitor)
This weekend Türkiye lost legend in Özkan Uğur (DS)
Syrian Kurdish fighters kill at least 5 Turkey-backed gunmen in nighttime attack, activists say (AP)
Russia signals death of UN aid operation to Syria from Turkey (Reuters)
Russia asks Turkey for 'clarification' over Ukraine's Azov prisoner release (Al-Monitor)
Turkish court releases 15 Kurdish journalists at first hearing after one year in jail (Duvar)
Over 2,400 municipal workers in İstanbul's Kadıköy go on strike (Bianet)
Papara becomes Turkey’s first fintech unicorn (Bloomberg)
Weekend reads
Erdoğan’s Long Arm Threatens Kurdish Exiles in Sweden
Journalists Giacomo Zandonini and Natália Alana detail the extradition concerns of Kurds in Sweden, where the NATO bid and acceptance of Turkey’s conditions “have been a paradigm shift”, says Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies. (FP)
Scapegoated by Everyone, Wanted by No One
Researcher Joshua Levkowitz writes about the blame Syrians received for the Feb. 6 earthquakes and the ensuing looting, writing: “For Syrians in exile, there were always few good options, and the list is getting shorter … Nobody I spoke to could countenance returning to a country still ruled by Mr. Assad.” (NYT)
Mastering the growing crisis in the South Caucasus: A role for the West and Turkey
Researcher Krzysztof Strachota argues the West should show greater determination in their South Caucasus policies, writing: “A renewed dialogue with Turkey would be an opportunity to avoid earlier misunderstandings such as over Syria, loosen Turkish-Russian ties, and finally help pull both sides out of their lengthy strategic impasse in relations.” (MEI)
Week ahead
Jul 13 FPRI hosts a Twitter Spaces titled "Reactions to Vilnius 2023" at 1500 GMT
Jul 14 The Boğaziçi exhibition trial involving 7 students resumes in İstanbul
Jul 15 Turkey marks the seventh anniversary of the July 15, 2016 coup attempt
Jul 18 Trial of Tele1 TV Editor-in-Chief Merdan Yanardağ resumes in Ankara
Jul 20 EU foreign ministers discuss Turkey during a Foreign Affairs Council meeting
Jul 20 Central Bank announces interest rate decision
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk