Issue 150: It’s like a birthday party, but better because you don’t have to dress up and we brought the gifts.
To celebrate, we took our best puns out of this inbox and turned them into real-life merch on Etsy to help fund our reports. We couldn’t have made it this far without the deeply-appreciated support of readers like you, so here’s to going further – by making ir-Reis-istible mugs.
This is just the start. We’re taking requests. And reply to this email if you know a delivery service in Turkey that does print-on-demand. We’re looking for local partners to cut shipping costs to Turkey, which like the rent, are too damn high!
Clarity is a luxury good and we almost got some on the upcoming election date, that is, if you could solve Pres. Erdoğan’s test yesterday on Turkish political history.
Referencing Turkey’s transition to electoral democracy on the same date 73 years ago, Erdoğan hinted elections this year will take place on May 14, a month earlier than initially expected.
Back in 1950, Adnan Menderes – the leader of the center-right Democrat Party and who Erdoğan often commemorates as his political idol – was elected the first PM of Turkey’s new multiparty system, beating out the CHP before he was overthrown in a 1960 military coup and executed a year later.
Many speculated the election date would be pushed forward due to the Eid holiday in June, and so Erdoğan ally Devlet Bahçeli got his way and is now urging the Table of Six to support Erdoğan because the guy’s got grit, or at least a copy of the book in his office.
According to political scientist Berk Esen, in bringing the date forward, the ruling government aims to bring voters to the polls before Turkey’s economic crisis deepens any further.
“If the opposition parties accept the date and the system Erdoğan set for the elections, they may have to confront their electoral base”, Esen told Turkey recap, noting the opposition bloc previously said it would object to elections held under the new electoral law, which comes into force in early April.
CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu signaled last night that they “will go to the ballots on May 14 and make a new beginning, with god’s permission.” For her part, İYİ Party head Meral Akşener tweeted: “May is ours”, showing support in another tweet for Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, who journalist Ruşen Çakır and other commentators shortlist as possible candidates. Yes, with 115 days left before modern Turkey’s biggest election, the opposition remains without a candidate.
Throughout, doubt and controversy lingers over whether Erdoğan can be a candidate for a third consecutive term, as Turkish Workers’ Party (TİP) MP and party spokesperson Sera Kadıgil explains here, arguing Article 101 of the existing electoral law forbids it.
However, a separate electoral law article states the president can sit for a third term if the parliament decides to dissolve itself and call for snap polls. This requires a two-thirds majority of the votes in the parliament, meaning that the ruling alliance will need some 25 votes from the opposition bloc, political scientist Prof. Emre Erdoğan said during his Medyascope appearance today.
In yet another scenario, Erdoğan could still find a loophole by dissolving the parliament and calling for elections by himself but gets blocked from being a candidate, the scholar said, adding: “The final decision will be made by the Supreme Electoral Council and we know what that will be.”
– Verda Uyar
Sauce power
Think of US-Turkey relations as cooking. Take two NATO members, cut some mutual trust and arms agreements, add S-400s with Russian dressing, two spoons of Ukrainian balancing act powder and bam!
That’s where US-Turkey ties are at and the mix ain’t smelling so great as Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu looks for the secret sauce that will cover all the foul flavors in Washington, where he remains for one more day and F-16s are on the menu.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday the Biden administration would push for congressional approval on jet sales to Turkey and Greece. The move remains unconfirmed, and while US State Sec. Antony Blinken didn't mention F-16s during his speech before a bilat with Çavuşoğlu Wednesday, many media outlets echoed the initial WSJ report.
Following yesterday’s meeting, Çavuşoğlu told reporters: "The administration should not waste such an important deal between two allies just because one person or a few people are blocking it.” He was likely referring to the strong opposition of Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Menendez.
Menendez's position gives him the power to block such deals. Still, according to BBC Türkçe, Ankara officials believe that despite his objections, and those of a few other senators, congressional approval is only a matter of time.
Writing for MEI, former US Amb. to Turkey W. Robert Pearson suggested Ankara could offer more clarity on the Sweden and Finland NATO bids to help push along the jet deal. The issues remain unlinked in official statements. (More below)
See-r-ya later
On Syria reconciliation, developments might not be so fast-paced after all. Syrian Pres. Bashar al-Assad made his first public remarks on the thaw Thursday, saying talks should be based on ending the occupation, referring to Turkish soldiers and support for rebels in the north.
Syrian FM Faisal Mekdad echoed the notion, saying: "We cannot talk about resuming normal ties with Turkey without removing the occupation." Regardless, Çavuşoğlu kept the door open, noting he could meet his Syrian counterpart in the coming period.
There was more optimism in comments from Iranian officials. After his meeting with Çavuşoğlu Tuesday, Iranian FM Hossein Amirabdollahian said he was “very pleased” with “the positive development” between Ankara and Damascus.
Syrians in Turkey, meanwhile, fear increased deportations and the end of their temporary protection status. On the ground in Syria, SDF commander Mazloum Adbi told Al-Monitor he still expects an attack on Kobani in February.
And in this extensive analysis of the re-engagement, MEI’s Charles Lister concludes:
“Ultimately, the obstacles to a game-changing deal are enormous, and insurmountable within a period of a few months — even more so if [elections] are brought forward to late April or May.”
Hung fury
Just after Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson said negotiations were “going very well”, a small activist group performed a mock execution on a life-size Erdoğan dummy outside Stockholm city hall last week.
The stunt sparked plenty of blowback in Ankara and elsewhere, with EC Pres. Ursula von der Leyen saying, “That is bad in every sense.” Since then, Erdoğan upped the ante for Swedish accession to 130 extraditions (it was 33 from both Sweden and Finland in June) and Turkish presidential spox İbrahim Kalın pushed the Nordic duo to make their move before a possible parliamentary recess in Ankara.
“I think we’re now in a deep crisis,” Paul T. Levin, director of the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies, told Turkey recap. “This past week has been quite dramatic in Sweden … there’s a sense this whole thing is farcical … but there’s still a strong majority in favor of NATO membership.”
The latest developments have been jolting, and that’s without the Erasmus scandal, the yogurt ban jokes and this Swedish magazine contest to insult Erdoğan. Note: The desecration of the Turkish flag in the last link, is based on a 1960s art piece desecrating the Swedish flag, which can open a whole tangent on freedom of expression in Sweden …
… But all you need to know is that free speech is important in Sweden (home of the world’s first free press law), Erdoğan is the world’s most ‘insulted’ leader and a Swedish prosecutor found no crime in the hanging of that Erdoğan effigy.
We can’t say what this all means for NATO expansion, but we know the US and UK gave Sweden security assurances last May, and Washington began Defense Cooperation Agreement discussions with Stockholm earlier this month.
As Levin frames it:
You have a group in Sweden that is against NATO membership and that also includes supporters of the revolutionary Kurdish cause in Rojava, as they describe themselves, and they are very upset with the concessions the Swedish government has made … and want to both raise attention to these issues and also try to sabotage the process.
Erdoğan is a politician. He’s shrewd and he’s a transactional politician, but it could also be that he is actually insulted, and if that’s the case, if this has become personal for him, that would be problematic for Sweden in the long run.
Maybe I need to retract my prediction now.
House of the rising price
If you’ve opened Sahibinden.com lately or talked to anyone looking for a house, you know Turkey’s housing market is hotter than a hamam. The same is true when compared to the rest of the world: Turkey ranked number one in housing price hikes in Q2 2022. İstanbul also takes the top spot in the cities ranking, with a staggering yearly increase of 212 percent.
In addition, statistics from 2022 showed Russians bought more than 16,000 homes, three times the number in 2021.
As the Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 9 percent today, Bloomberg writes the bank will now resort to “the rest of its unconventional toolkit to manage loan growth and widen the use of the lira.”
But with the uncertainty of the upcoming elections, investors apparently don’t want to risk long-term exposure to Turkey’s bonds and are watching closely for a possible opposition win.
In this worthwhile interview with DW Türkçe, global risk specialist Wolf Piccoli touches on Turkish stock volatility as well as questions on the political, foreign policy and economic outlook of the country, saying Erdoğan’s new economic model “failed” and brought “misery.”
Hot knife through clutter
And it might be the year of the water rabbit in China, but it’s the year of the fire-breathing scrap metal dragon in Sivas. We’re still waiting for the year of the Şalvar pants, which are the logical next step in comfort wear but haven’t bounced back from the smear campaign that was Levi’s Wokes.
But in all seriousness, we hope 2023 becomes a year of unblocking … for sidewalks, which is upsetting the Marti e-scooter founder/son-in-law of a high-ranking AKP deputy … and for Bosporus traffic, which stopped Monday after a vessel carrying 13,000 tonnes of peas drifted aground.
The boat was quickly dislodged and moved on, but media outlets missed a golden opportunity to use the headline: Peas at home, Peas in the world.
Speed reads
Halkbank Gets Mixed Reception at Top US Court on Immunity (Bloomberg)
How Western Goods Reach Russia: A Long Line of Trucks Through Georgia (NYT)
Özgür Özel of CHP exposes 'troll army of Interior Minister Soylu' (Bianet)
Thousands gather for first Labor and Freedom Alliance rally in İstanbul (Duvar)
Turkey's Baykar to deliver drones to Kuwait in $370 million deal (Reuters)
New prosecutor releases suspect aiding gunman flee in Sinan Ateş murder case (Bianet)
Mufti’s talk of women’s duties angers some Turkish Cypriots (AP)
In new hate speech, Erdoğan deems LGBTI+ 'virus of heresy' (Duvar)
Bartolomé, el patriarca ecuménico de Constantinopla, es un hincha más del Trabzonspor (Jot Down Sport)
Weekend reads
The İmamoğlu sentence: Will İstanbul Share the Fate of Diyarbakır?
Analyst Halil Karaveli argues İmamoğlu’s sentence could help the opposition turn elections into a referendum on popular sovereignty, but sees little chance for success, concluding: “To tip the balance in favor of popular democracy, Turkey needs a rearrangement of political alliances.” (Turkey Analyst)
Powering the hydrogen economy in Europe: what role for Turkey?
Academic Tolga Demiryol writes Turkey has the potential to develop an export-capable hydrogen sector, but argues this depends on various factors “including Turkey’s domestic energy consumption and the extent of regional cooperation on hydrogen development and trade.” (Heinrich Böll)
The Middle Corridor Calls for Turkish-European Cooperation
Journalist Barçın Yinanç assesses multilateral cooperation on the Caucasus-Central Asia transport route as an alternative to the Northern Corridor through Russia and Belarus, concluding Europe “will have to review their stance and recognize that they need to join hands with Turkey to make Middle Corridor come to fruition.” (Turkey Analyst)
What Kind of a Parliamentary System?
Law professor and DEVA member Fazıl Hüsnü Erdem dives deep into the Turkish judiciary, writing: “While the efforts of the political powers to make the judiciary a mere tool for realizing their own political goals and giving them apparent legal legitimacy play an important role … there are gaps in our positive law that allow such efforts to be successful.” (Ankara Institute)
Week ahead
Jan. 24 The trial of journalist Deniz Yücel resumes in absentia in İstanbul (background)
Jan. 25 Trial of Ayşegül Doğan resumes in Diyarbakır (background)
Jan. 26 Trial of writer Ahmet Altan resumes in İstanbul (background)
Jan. 26 Trial of journalists Trial of Can Bursalı, Barış Terkoğlu and Nevzat Çiçek resumes in İstanbul (background)
Jan. 26 Central bank publishes its quarterly inflation report
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk