Kemal Me Maybe
KK’s on the ballot. Now we can move on to other variables, like Muharrem İnce and his viral dance meme. Can’t. Stop. Watching.
Just like his candidacy prospects, we can’t tell whether people like him or if he’s just getting trolled, but some Redditors believe İnce could push the vote to a second round. After all, with moves like these, he was made for the TikTok generation.
And if you missed it, watch our livestream Q+A with Selim Koru, in which we discussed earthquake relief efforts and electoral politics as the KK candidacy was announced Monday.
On May 21, 2022, when Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu led a massive rally beneath a giant poster of himself, we could’ve concluded he’d be Turkey’s opposition candidate for the 2023 elections. Too simple.
Instead, the opposition clicked the gray-colored “alternate route” on Google Maps, switched from high-speed train to the walking option, and arrived at the same conclusion nearly 10 months later this Monday because it’s the journey, not the destination or something.
Promising to govern on “consultation and consensus”, the mild-mannered CHP head KK, as we call him, faces an uphill battle in defeating skilled orator, daily-agenda-dominator Pres. Erdoğan, whose main promise is to make this the century of Turkey. See a difference in messaging?
KK stands for accountability, asking questions like where are the $128 billion in missing funds? Erdoğan stands for simplicity, making statements even a passive listener can understand, like calling the opposition alliance a Table of Seven, implying hidden connections with the HDP (more below).
First, why the VPs?
Noting KK’s polling numbers were lower than İstanbul and Ankara mayors Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, İYİ Party members and supporters have long protested a KK candidacy, leading to a near derailment for the opposition alliance this weekend.
In sum, İYİ Party head Meral Akşener, who’s been compared to the psychiatrist from The Sopranos, called for a rebellion Friday that failed in removing KK, but succeeded in placing the popular CHP mayors as VPs on KK’s ticket for future power-sharing positions *if the opp wins.*
Analysts interviewed by Turkey recap said the CHP troika strengthened KK’s victory prospects and at least tentatively reunited the Table of Six, though many campaign obstacles remain. Explaining what just happend, Seren Selvin Korkmaz, executive director of İstanPol Institute, said the CHP opposed running the mayors as candidates because their mayoral seats would be filled by AKP-led city councils during the election campaign period.
Holding on to municipalities provides significant “resources during elections and … will be valuable for opposition parties for locations, for logistics” and to better deter AKP attempts to undermine their campaigns in Ankara and İstanbul, Korkmaz said.
Second, how to parliamentary transition?
Adding İmamoğlu and Yavaş as VPs means a Table of Six victory would come with KK and seven VPs in total (one from each remaining allaince party). Most Turkey experts, including Alan Makovsky, believe the two mayors would keep their positions till March 2024 local elections, but nothing is for sure since opposition agreements are vague.
Asked how power sharing might work between KK and seven VPs in Turkey’s interim period between elections and a transition back to a parliamentary system *again, if the opp wins*, Berk Esen, assistant prof. of political science at İstanbul’s Sabancı University, said:
“It’s really a very unpredictable scenario because it comes down to how many seats the six opposition parties get in parliament after the elections. It also comes down to how the AKP and MHP MPs will react.”
He added: “My sense is that probably the other parties will want a very quick transition to a parliamentary system, because they will want a prime minister with devolved powers, they will want a parliament with more powers, but of course if Kılıçdaroğlu and the CHP have the leadership, then they might want to do this very carefully and over a long period.”
Third, how about the İYİ-HDP rift?
The main weak point for the opposition’s prospects is the brewing İYİ-HDP discord, according to analysts interviewed by Turkey recap. Having long protested HDP’s inclusion in the Table of Six, Akşener does not want the party to hold a ministry *if the opp wins* but said the CHP and HDP can talk.
To win, KK needs both İYİ and HDP voter support, which will be a tough tightrope to walk while he gets pummeled with the regular AKP-MHP attack ads and smear campaigns.
Tensions between the two blocks were always high due to İYİ party’s exclusionary discourse (aka appealing to their supporters) and is now higher following jailed HDP former co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş’ open letter to Akşener Wednesday (aka appealing to his supporters).
MEI’s Gönül Tol, author of “Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria,” said she was “worried about Akşener’s stance” on the HDP and said the CHP could only resolve tensions by meeting HDP officials and fostering some kind of common agreement.
“Someone has to be the adult in the room, and if Meral Akşener doesn’t want to be, then others have to, otherwise this will only weaken their chances,” Tol told Turkey recap.
She added: “I am more hopeful than I was a week ago. I think [Akşener’s actions] also, in an ironic way, energized the base. But obviously after seeing what happened over the weekend, you can never disregard the opposition parties’ ability to mess things up.”
All three analysts interviewed by Turkey recap predicted the HDP would not run its own candidate after discussions with the CHP. This means dancing man İnce is the current wild card, along with HDP’s closure case, which resumes next week.
Fourth, election integrity
Apart from inter-alliance squabbles, election integrity is the other top concern as Erdoğan tomorrow (March 10) is expected to launch the process to facilitate a May 14 vote. He also said a coming presidential decree would ensure voting rights for people displaced by the Feb. 6 earthquakes.
Looking at the two-month election blitz before us, İstanPol’s Korkmaz said the general playing field (state resources and media) is heavily tilted in Erdoğan’s favor:
“Erdoğan’s best chance to win is using the state of emergency in the earthquake zones to obstruct opposition campaigns and manipulate the elections … The AKP will also do their best to terrorize the HDP or to create problems between the opposition alliance and the HDP in effort to divide voters.”
All points to keep in mind considering during “normal elections” in 2018, opposition campaign buses were blocked in Gaziantep, gun fights broke in Urfa and we haven’t even talked about vote counting or KK’s Alevi background. More to come soon. Expect turbulence.
– Diego Cupolo
Earthquake updates
Though a month has now passed since the Feb. 6 earthquakes, it still feels like yesterday that two earthquakes wiped away cities, families and many people’s futures. To commemorate the deaths, a candlelight initiative was started on social media.
People are still looking for their missing relatives, while shelter and sanitation problems remain in addition to difficult weather conditions with heavy wind and rain in the earthquake region. Women are facing additional problems and often lack basic hygienic products like underwear or period and contraception products or are too shy to ask for them, AFP reports.
In terms of the economic cost, UNDP estimated the earthquake damage would exceed $100 billion, as the government reportedly is to present a special fund for the rebuilding efforts.
The consequences in terms of voter behavior still remain to be seen, but initial reports found the Erdoğan government's loss of support has been limited. One of the reasons is the promise to rebuild quickly, the other is that “AK Party voters overwhelmingly blame the contractors for the disaster,” pollster Özer Sencar told Reuters.
On the other hand, earthquake victims Reuters spoke with did signal a shift, as one voter in Kahramanmaraş said: "We breathe AKP here, but this earthquake changed everything for us. These people don't know what they are doing."
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg spoke Wednesday against Turkey’s latest demand for Sweden to ban Quran burning protests. “I have conveyed to Turkey that people can have different opinions,” Stoltenberg said. “Many countries have laws that restrict such actions, but you can’t ban everything you don’t like.”
According to Ankara, yes, you can. The Turkish government continues to push Sweden to introduce tough legislation on terrorism and to crack down on pro-Kurdish groups.
Though Ankara seems to have less problems with Finland’s bid, and a scenario in which Helsinki and Stockholm join separately, apparently resonates well with the US administration now. Though even if Finland gets Ankara’s approval, it will still require Hungary’s ratification, which currently looks uncertain.
According to Paul Levin (a Weekend read below) this ongoing diplomatic deadlock is benefiting Erdoğan at home as he faces a tough election ahead, but it also benefits Moscow. As Stefanie Glinski reports, the two could be more dependent on each other than it seems.
This comes as the Turkish Deputy FM will meet his Russian and Syrian counterparts next week in Moscow, which will be followed up by an FMs meeting at an unspecified later date.
İki ucu b*klu değnek
Turkey's trade deficit widened to $14.24 billion in January, according to the latest TurkStat data. It was mainly due to Turkey being the "world's biggest gold buyer" and the surging cost of energy imports. "A rise in household demand for gold has been seen due to traditional patterns of buying and recent high inflation," reported Reuters.
Turkey's soaring inflation spurred demand for the precious metal, and people's return to 'yastık altı' – or under the cushion savings – which was also evident in the earthquake region. One search and rescue team leader in Hatay during the first week told Turkey recap that a citizen offered him half of the 2 kgs of gold they were keeping at home if the team helped retrieve it.
Turkish media reported that after the earthquake, many people gravitated toward safe deposits and banks, and some actually opted to wear their gold, instead.
Meanwhile, inflation eased to its lowest level in a year. Yet, experts are not hopeful for the future. Experts expect state spending following the earthquakes and looser monetary policy pose a risk to prices.
Economist Selva Bahar Baziki told CNN that the necessary quake spending would likely result in the government breaching budget targets. "Quake-related public spending is estimated at 2.6 percent of GDP in the short run," Baziki said. "But could eventually reach as high as 5.5 percent."
According to economists talking to CNN, the Turkish government can try to plug budget shortfalls by taking on more debt or raising taxes – both are possible.
Elon Must
And it seems last month’s Twitter outage talks didn’t go well. Elon Musk, or English Twitter’s Melih Gökçek minus the ALL CAPS, was slapped with a fine Monday for taking over Twitter without permission from the Turkish Competition Board.
Seeking 0.1 percent of Twitter’s 2022 revenue (now awaiting appeal), the move follows similar fines on Meta, TikTok and Google, proving Turkey didn’t have to join the EU to be a global internet regulator.
Next step, reforming GDPR, soon to be known as GDTR.
Speed reads
Turkey faces challenge 'beyond comprehension' to clear earthquake rubble (Reuters)
Years of warnings and inaction in Turkish city destroyed by earthquakes (WP)
Saudi Arabia Finalizes $5 Billion for Turkey to Bolster Economy (Bloomberg)
Anti-Kurdish racism stains soccer pitch in western Turkey (Al-Monitor)
Quake-hit Antakya communities seek role in saving rich heritage (Al-Jazeera)
Turkey Black Sea Gas Project Faces Delay Due to Earthquakes (Bloomberg)
Court blocks access to Turkey's popular car, motorcycle sharing app (Bianet)
Turkish actor wins ECHR case over ‘kiss on the terrace’ video (AFP)
Türkiye's government extends grip on independent media, says CoE report (Bianet)
Turkey says it is working to renew Black Sea grain deal (Reuters)
Weekend reads
The Turkish Veto: Why Erdoğan Is Blocking Finland and Sweden’s Path to NATO
Analyst Paul Levin outlines four reasons behind the NATO spat and details the actions taken based on the memorandum the three countries signed, writing “allies cannot afford to wait until after the Turkish elections to increase the intensity of conversations with Ankara. However, they should avoid acting in ways that could sway the next elections.” (FPRI)
Operation Claw-Sword Exposes Blind Spots in the US’ NE Syria Strategy
Researchers Caroline Rose, Aram Shabanian and Calvin Wilder write intense shelling and airstrikes by Turkish forces highlight the precarious nature of the counter-IS mission (C-ISIS), concluding “the US and coalition partners should discern repeated Turkish escalation through Operation Claw-Sword as a warning for the long-term viability of C-ISIS operations.” (NLI)
Turkey’s crisis management playbook: Donations, reconstruction, and inflation with an eye on elections
Scholar and financial advisor M. Murat Kubilay writes on the financial burden of the recent earthquakes in Turkey on top of the already weak economic outlook that was present before the disaster hit, stating: “More government spending is necessary for the recovery of the region. However, given Turkey’s limited production capacity and weak competitive power due to expensive lira, the main consequence will be higher inflation.” (MEI)
Defending submarine cables in the Black Sea: A challenge for NATO and the region
The war in Ukraine is threatening submarine cables under the Black Sea, a crucial part of global comms systems, which have some end points in Turkey, writes Hotaka Nakamura, who warns despite a voiced support for increased NATO involvement in the matter, Turkey’s middleman approach towards the conflict is adding challenges to securing infrastructure networks. (MEI)
Week ahead
Mar 9 Carnegie hosts a webinar titled "The Future of Türkiye’s Post-Earthquake Politics" at 1500 GMT
Mar 9 Words Without Borders hosts a virtual benefit event with readings by Orhan Pamuk, Maureen Freely, Elif Şafak and others at 1800 GMT
Mar 9 The Foundation for Defense of Democracies hosts a webinar titled "Turkey After Erdoğan" at 19:45 GMT
Mar 10 Erdoğan dissolves parliament and launches pre-election formalities (his tweet)
Mar 10 TurkStat publishes the labor force stats for Jan 2023
Mar 14 HDP closure case resumes as the party shares its defense (background)
Mar 15 Trial of journalists Fırat Fıstık, Ozan Buz resumes in İstanbul (background)
Turkey recap is an independent platform supported by readers via Patreon and Substack. Members get access to our Slack, news tracking tools, calendar and more.
We invite you to visit our merch store, but if you simply liked what you read, subscribe here or forward it to a friend. Feedback and pitches: info@turkeyrecap.com.
Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk