Kick In The Grain
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If this newsletter finds you hot and sweaty, remember there’s three ways to ride a heat wave:
The Urfalı: Throw rocks at the sun
The Adanalı: Praise Willis Hava-land Carrier.
The Engin Abi: Leave planet Earth.
Oh, and don’t miss Rabia Çetin’s report on Turkey’s brain drain and the concerned mothers who are encouraging their kids to live abroad.
The Kremlin announced the suspension of the UN-Turkey-brokered grain corridor deal Monday. Since it was established last July, the agreement has allowed safe passage of more than 32 million tons of grain from Black Sea, mostly to China, Spain and Turkey, according to UN data, helping stabilize global food prices and supplies.
Russia’s latest decision came after Ankara’s green light (or whatever it’s called now, more below) for Sweden’s NATO bid and the return of five Azovstal commanders to Ukraine.
Mainstream media presented those moves as a setback for Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, suggesting Ankara was pivoting back to the west. But for geopolitical analyst Yörük Işık, these arguments are troubling and remain insufficient:
“Turkey has been a NATO member for many years. It was cooperating with Ukraine and Georgia for some time already in military training under Partnerships for Peace. These shouldn’t come as surprising for Russia,” Işık told Turkey recap.
Işık said he viewed the grain deal decision as a “psychological operation”, adding it was more likely a Russian attempt to “show-off” and cover up mismanagement of the Ukraine war.
“Russia is weakened and its internal mechanisms have corrupted,” Işık said. “It doesn’t have the same capacity as before to carry operations in Syria. That’s why it uses energy as one weapon, and food security as another … It’s just to create terror.”
So far, Russia put forward it’s unfulfilled conditions as to the motive for suspending the deal, calling on the UN to end sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other restrictions on Russian foods and fertilizers, which it claims have hindered exports.
The notice period for the UN to meet Russian demands is three months, but Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said he hopes to persuade Putin by next month.
After the last vessel undocked Sunday, Moscow went on to strike Ukrainian grain ports, and claimed any ship traveling to Ukraine would be seen as a potential threat starting today (Thursday). This all could change the course of Turkey-Russia relations, an unwanted scenario by both parties.
“Future relations are dependent on how reasonable Russia will act. It has the potential to become worse. If Russia attacks civilian ships it will end up expanding the war into Black Sea with neighboring NATO countries involved, digging its own grave,” Işık said.
Logically, Moscow would not want to confront Turkey, he continued, stating the relation’s balance is in Turkey’s favor at the moment and “Russia is well aware of this.”
“[Russia] can’t take the risk of Turkey participating in the mass sanctions it's facing,” Işık added.
– Verda Uyar
Tour de bourse
Erdoğan’s three-day Gulf tour ended yesterday, producing billions of dollars worth of agreements on top of last week’s first-place award to Diyanet for Hajj organization skills. Each Gulf leader also got their own TOGG, which conveniently means “yearning” in Arabic (توق).
Ali Bakır, Atlantic Council non-resident senior fellow and international affairs professor at Qatar University, said Erdoğan’s trip aimed to upgrade economic relations with Gulf countries and attract as much investment as possible.
“With Mehmet Şimşek and Hafize Gaye Erkan at the steering wheel of the new policy, trust is expected to be regained in the biggest non-oil economy in the Middle East,” Bakır told Turkey recap.
The first stop was Saudi Arabia, where an energy cooperation memorandum was signed and the Saudi foreign ministry agreed to purchase Bayraktar drones, “Turkey’s nascent powerhouse” as Bakır put it.
A similar joint statement came from the Qatar visit the following day. But what got Erdoğan smiling in pictures was perhaps the package of UAE deals estimated to be worth $50.7 billion – beating expectations – after his visit to Abu Dhabi.
The agreements, which include investments in space, defense, energy and natural resource projects, are in addition to a previous $40 billion trade deal signed in March. Yet Bakır raised warnings about the credibility of the deals before they materialize.
“Past experiences with some GCC countries have shown a tendency to promise significant figures, but the follow-through hasn't always been consistent,” he said.
Stuck-holm in the middle with you
In this week’s episode of word games about Sweden’s NATO bid, the latest addition is from AKP spox Ömer Çelik, who said, "Turkey did not say yes to Sweden's entry into NATO; it paved the way for Sweden's entry into NATO." Meaning more of the same.
With the Swedish court blocking the extradition of two alleged Gülenists and another Quran-burning protest planned for today (Thursday), a swift ‘yes’ from Turkish parliament seems less likely, even though the body voted to keep its foreign affairs committee on standby this summer, which in theory could speed up the process.
On a parallel track, the Netherlands lifted restrictions on exporting weapons to Turkey, though US Sen. Bob Menendez seems to continue his opposition to the F-16 deal.
And on a third rail, veteran US journalist Seymour Hersh reported an alleged backroom deal last week, claiming US Pres. Joe Biden promised a “$11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkey by the IMF” in return for Erdoğan’s green light on Sweden.
Considering Erdoğan’s staunch rhetoric against the IMF in the past, which he repeated this year during his victory speech, it seems to be an unlikely prospect – or as analyst Howard Eissenstat argues, “the longest of long shots.”
Shove thy neighbor
To no one’s surprise, EU lawmakers Tuesday said Turkey could not gain EU membership in return for approving Sweden’s NATO bid.
Reviewing the European Parliament (EP) report on Turkey, officials expressed their commitment to cooperate with Ankara, while at the same time pushing for alternative formats to manage relations, as EP rapporteur on Turkey Nacho Sánchez Amor told Turkey recap after the May elections.
Speaking Tuesday, Amor said Ankara would not revive the EU accession process “as a result of geopolitical bargaining, but when Turkish authorities show real interest in stopping the continuous backsliding in fundamental freedoms and the rule of law.”
As usual, Turkish officials condemned the statements. The EC’s Foreign Affairs Council will discuss Turkey in today’s agenda (Thursday), but most commentators note Turkey’s EU hopes faded with the collapse of the 2004 Annan Plan.
Finally, someone from CHP took responsibility for the May election results as the party’s deputy chairman, Özgür Özel, told Sözcü TV Wednesday that "CHP needs to reckon, to self-criticize" warning about an "emotional break-up" between the party and its voters.
The statement came after a leaked video Wednesday showed İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu creating plans with senior party members to unseat CHP head Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Party elite like Engin Altay, Onursal Adıgüzel, Bülent Tezcan, Tekin Bingöl and Muharrem Erkek were in the meeting, while others like Selin Sayek Böke and Veli Ağbaba were also mentioned as supporters of the crew.
The revelations involve some of KK’s long-time supporters within the party, many of whom joined his 2017 Justice March. Bingöl, for example, had a heart attack during the walk. But now they believe the party needs a "change" before the municipal elections next year.
The main topic of the leaked video segment was personnel changes at some local organizations – which, in the end, are connected to the upcoming party congress.
The provincial head of the CHP’s Defne branch in Hatay, Akın Parlakyıldız, was among the local officials who were recently removed from their positions. KK got almost 92 percent of the votes in Defne in the last elections, but according to Parlakyıldız, his team got the boot due to a perceived support for İmamoğlu.
"The real reason behind it is someone whispered into Kılıçdaroğlu's ear that we attended all the events where İmamoğlu was present during his municipality's efforts in the region," Parlakyıldız told Turkey recap during a recent trip.
"There are 22 delegates from Hatay, and the 'genel başkan' wanted to be sure all those votes would go to him. So, he removed us to prevent any possible opposition support."
Parlakyıldız's claims were supported by many other senior CHP figures, who requested anonymity while speaking to Turkey recap.
"İmamoğlu has a powerful team, yet it is hard to beat the house in CHP. It almost always wins," one prominent CHP official told us. "No one cares about what happens in the country now. Everyone counts the numbers to defeat the other side."
For further details, see this Daily Sabah article — which eagerly reported on the CHP chaos. Also find a transcript of the leaked conversation on Medyascope. Bonus: Our soundtrack suggestion for the start of the leaked video.
School of fine artış
The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate from 15 to 17.5 percent today (Thursday), adding to last month’s 650 point raise. The move was lower than forecasted, with initial market reactions sending the Turkish lira down slightly to 26.93 per USD at 2:30 pm local time.
“As market participants look for more clues on the new monetary policy approach, this [is] now the second time in a row that the CB delivered a less-than-expected hike,” Emre Akçakmak, a senior consultant at East Capital, told Turkey recap.
He continued, “What's new this time around is the mention of selective credit tightening which will probably aim to address the divergence among different rates including commercial credit and deposit rates.”
As for the lira itself, Akçakmak said, “Initial reaction on the currency was muted, but may not tell much about the mood if one keeps in mind the recent steep depreciation in lira.”
The news comes at a delicate time for the Turkish economy, which is absorbing the aftershocks of an estimated $200 billion spending spree to prop up the lira. #YOLO #NoReserveNations
Now in apparent recovery mode, Turkey’s new economic team has a long to-do list, which includes managing a record budget deficit, getting off the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) gray list and establishing fiscal stability after a wave of tax hikes that raised the fuel tax by 200 percent.
Meanwhile, housing sales fell 44 percent last month amid surging real estate prices and hard-to-get bank loans. It’s no better for renters, especially in İstanbul where the average rent increased by 654 percent in five years and at least one tenant-landlord rent dispute turned deadly this week.
All the president’s Menzil
Islamic sects, cemaat or tarikat in Turkish, mostly operate outside the public eye, but one got a lot of attention this week after thousands of members of the Menzil sect gathered Friday for the funeral of their leader, Sheikh Abdulbaki Erol, who was praised by Erdoğan in a full page obituary as "one of the spiritual guides of our country."
Named after its home in Adıyaman’s Menzil village, this sect is a distinct branch of the Naqshbandi order. It’s believed the Menzil sect has influence within the Health Ministry and called on its members to support the ruling People’s Alliance during elections.
The large funeral also sparked a discussion about children in the sect. The order runs various schools and dorms, where a 12-year-old committed suicide recently.
Their affiliated Beşir organization was and remains very active in the earthquake zone, with reports suggesting some earthquake orphans and other children who could not be identified were adopted by the sect.
To be or leblebi
And it’s a great time for lady bugs and Mexican sailing ships in Turkey. Not so much for gay tourists in İstanbul, rainbow flag wavers in Uşak and drinkers in Samsun. In other news:
‘Hobbit Lodges’ in Sivas had to change their name following a letter from some hard-Tolkien lawyers.
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan didn’t follow the batik dress code at the Jakarta summit because he was afraid to shipwreck the party.
KK sued a Twitch streamer for calling him a 'roasted chickpea head' (‘leblebi kafalı’ in Turkish)
And if the truth is out there, the hyperlink is in Fikirtepe.
Speed reads
Over five months after Turkey's earthquakes, Hatay still grapples with severe water crisis (Bianet)
Turkey’s healthcare system cracks over doctors' exodus and shortage of medicine (Duvar)
Turkish ambassador announces privatization of port in Northern Cyprus (GN)
Cyprus seeks to revive peace talks with Turkey over divided island (Guardian)
Syria says UN can deliver aid through shuttered Turkish crossing for six months (Reuters)
Kosovo buys Turkish Bayraktar drones (Reuters)
Turkey’s top judiciary body relocates judge who voted in favor of Osman Kavala's release (Duvar)
Britain says it will start talks with Turkey on new free trade deal (Reuters)
Weekend reads
How to Save Turkish Democracy
Analyst Halil Karaveli argues Turkey needs a renewed leftist movement to defeat Erdoğan, writing: “Turkey’s unions may be smaller now than they were when Erdoğan first took power, there are still millions of people in organized labor who cut across ethnic divides and could mobilize on behalf of a progressive candidate.” (Foreign Affairs)
Türkiye, Russia, and their Rules-Based Competition
Adding helpful nuance to Turkey-Russia relations, researcher Daria Isachenko writes: “One of the partnership’s key puzzles is that, despite the lack of trust, the two sides still cooperate. But this is only puzzling if we assume that trust is necessary for cooperation.” (Baku Dialogues)
Climate Change Threatens Turkey’s Role as a Food Supplier to Europe and the Middle East
Noting the IPCC estimates 60 percent of Turkey's land area is prone to climate change-driven desertification, analyst Michaël Tanchum warns: “Ankara has little time to lose in adopting agri-tech solutions to avert detrimental impacts on its own food security and its role as a key exporter in regional food supply chains.”(Turkey Analyst)
Turkey’s New Cabinet
Detailing who’s in and who’s out of the president’s cabinet, Hürcan Aslı Aksoy, Yaşar Aydın and Salim Çevik write: “Erdoğan can be expected to pursue a foreign policy that prioritizes economic gains and to use foreign relations to gain better financial and economic deals.” (CATS Network)
Week ahead
Jul 27 Central Bank releases quarterly inflation report
(That’s it! Even judges are taking a summer break)
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk