Hello! We did some math over the holidays and learned UK-Turkey flights cost the same as toothpaste, bathrooms in Çeşme cost the same as a meal and the Telegraph will always have the wrong take on this country.
We also realized our spirit animal is this guy who fell asleep on an inflatable bed near Edirne and had to be rescued 7 km offshore. It’s either him or this French guy who was picked up by Turkish sailors after 137 days lost at sea.
His first request was soda, meaning Beypazarı, not Sırma.
As sacrificial rituals caused 30,000 injuries, with about 1,000 men accidentally stabbing themselves during Kurban Bayramı, a Reuters report published just before the holiday harmed the already sensitive triangle of US-Turkey-Swedish relations.
According to the investigation, a Swedish subsidiary of a US company planned to pay kickbacks to the president’s son, Bilal Erdoğan, in return for commercial exclusivity in Turkey. While the ploy never materialized, both Washington and Stockholm appear to be reviewing a complaint on the matter.
Ankara responded with anger, Bilal’s lawyer called the Reuters story a “web of lies” and the agency appealed court orders to remove its story. Adding further background on Bilal-linked foundations in Turkey, Global Voices also detailed how authorities tried to block access to the story and earlier reports about graft allegations.
All of the above is just another chapter in Sweden’s NATO accession saga as it waits for a green light from Ankara ahead of the bloc’s July 11-12 summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and Pres. Erdoğan has yet to flash positive signs.
Adding fuel to the fire, a man in Sweden “tore pages from the Quran, wiped his shoes with some of them and burned others, then placed a slice of bacon in the book.”
While the event was “strongly condemned” by the Swedish government – which is uncommon, according to Paul T. Levin, director of the Stockholm Univ. Institute for Turkish Studies – it sparked anger in Turkey and other Muslim countries.
Turkish officials connected it to the NATO bid, but Aras Lindh, a Turkey analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, did not believe the Quran burning would be a determinant factor while noting it has the potential to gain significance.
“Depending on the sensitivity surrounding Quran burnings in the Muslim world and how things play out in the near future, it may become more challenging for Erdoğan to admit Sweden (at least in the short term) while striving to present himself as a prominent leader within the Muslim world,” he told Turkey recap.
Swedish officials now openly doubt whether the country will be a NATO member after the summit. "Nobody can promise it will happen specifically in Vilnius or right ahead of Vilnius,” Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson said.
On Monday, Erdoğan gave the Swedes another verbal cold shower, saying they should “do their homework better”, and on Wednesday he said PKK demonstrations nullify the steps taken.
For his part, FM Hakan Fidan said Turkey would not be pressured by time. His Hungarian counterpart announced they would follow Turkey’s lead in case of a green light.
Noting Sweden has made significant changes to appease Turkey, and for the first time convicted a man for attempted extortion and attempted terrorist financing on behalf of the PKK, Levin said recent “acts of provocation and demonstrations in Sweden” angered Ankara and as a result, no real progress has been made since the beginning of the year.
Lindh said the meeting between US Pres. Joe Biden and Kristersson Wednesday also didn’t point to any near-term breakthroughs, “although a sudden change in the Turkish position towards Swedish membership cannot be completely ruled out.”
“One option to full membership by next week is for Swedish and Turkish leaders to sign some form of declaration regarding the next steps,” Lindh said, highlighting a meeting between Fidan and Swedish FM Tobias Billström Thursday (today).
“If Turkey continues to block the Swedish accession, we may well see efforts to make Sweden a de facto member, although the specifics of such a scenario remain unclear,” he added.
Among Swedes, both Lindh and Levin said there’s a perception that Stockholm can’t do much more without restricting freedom of speech and freedom of assembly.
“There is a prevailing belief that the final outcome depends on agreements made by Turkey and the US rather than Sweden, which makes Swedish efforts rather irrelevant in the end,” Lindh explained.
Regarding Sweden’s chances of joining NATO next week, Levin said: “It doesn’t look good, but also don't think that it is necessarily impossible,” saying one option is a broad package deal that satisfies Ankara.
“It would surprise me if Ankara were to hold out and block all of the new NATO plans, as well as NATO expansion,” Levin told Turkey recap.
“Because that would mean that Vilnius becomes a complete fiasco for NATO, for the US and Biden,” he added. “I think that would enrage the US and other NATO allies, and that could turn out to be very costly for Turkey and for Erdoğan.”
– Ingrid Woudwijk
Going off on a Tanju
Facing a new criminal case, İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu continues to push for change in Turkish politics with a new website and campaign, claiming “Turkey’s opposition parties have failed to defend democracy.”
By far the CHP’s most charismatic figure (keep trying Sarıgül), there’s plenty of talk about İmamoğlu’s aims to challenge KK’s leadership ahead of the next party congress.
Problem is, KK might delay the congress till after 2024 municipal elections to keep leverage over party members and prospective candidates, said Burak Bilgehan Özpek, political science assoc. prof. at TOBB University of Economics and Technology.
“Either CHP will change its leadership and its institutional policy towards the opposition, which is possible only if Ekrem İmamoğlu becomes CHP’s next leader, or the opposition parties will totally collapse,” Özpek told Turkey recap, saying many opposition voters had little faith in their political representatives after the May vote.
“There is an opportunity for İmamoğlu, but he is trying to gain ground by convincing intra-CHP factions rather than becoming an independent and autonomous political figure,” Özpek said, arguing İmamoğlu should take the party leadership by leveraging voter support instead of CHP networks, which he compared to the Byzantine Empire.
Meanwhile, Bolu Mayor Tanju Özcan is also calling for change in the CHP and is now walking 200 kms to Ankara on a “Change and Justice March” with similar signs and hats to KK’s 2017 Justice March, showing politicians can recycle not just ideas but also swag. Let’s call it ‘süsle-tainable campaigning’.
Regardless, Özpek advises not to overlook the anti-migrant firebrand Özcan, who he says represents “mainstream Kemalist ideology in the CHP.”
“His support is very important,” Özpek noted, adding Özcan maintains long-held policy lines on the Kurdish issue and other topics that KK openly debated. “Turkey is a security state and republicanism is a guarantee for the system. Kılıçdaroğlu was not able to give [reassuring] signals to the system.”
AKA the reason KK appointed former Zafer Party executive Gökşen Anıl Ulukuş as his advisor Tuesday.
Parliament for the bourse
After Erdoğan shot hoops day and night (check the windows), and his wingman Fuat Oktay went white-ish water rafting, Turkish parliament is back from break with civil servant pay raises topping the agenda and not just because MPs are civil servants, too.
Inflation hurts and expenses are growing as lawmakers Wednesday introduced a draft proposal to raise taxes (details below).
With more pain to come and more elections on the horizon, Emre Erdoğan, a political science professor at Bilgi University, predicts fluctuations in the nation’s economic health will have limited impacts compared to other trends.
“First, the government always loses support in the local elections of March because of worsening living conditions during the winter. Secondly, the current economic conditions may be worsened by rising energy prices during the autumn.”
“From that perspective, the economic conditions will favor the opposition, however this advantage will be very limited compared to the possible positive or negative impact of including the Kurdish political movement in the opposition coalition or attracting their implicit support.”
Regarding the potential lifespan of Pres. Erdoğan’s U-turn on interest rates, Prof. Erdoğan said:
“The government seems to accept a kind of orthodox economic policies, but they are far from initiating a radical orthodox reform package. Hence, I don’t [expect] any push for economic reforms before the local elections.”
New cars fly in the US, and old ones get more and more costly every day in Turkey.
The country's official monthly inflation rate for June came in lower than expected, with annual inflation standing at 38.21 percent – the lowest in 18 months. [Click to see ENAG'S unofficial rate – which is gaining credibility through business contracts.]
Using another indicator, automotive journalist Emre Özpeynirci noted the price of the cheapest cars in Turkey increased by 70.84 percent over the last 6 months, when official monthly inflation stood at 19.77 percent.
Meanwhile, the AKP plans to double the road tax (MTV) for all cars except those registered in the earthquake zone and raise corporate taxes through a draft law submitted to parliament to fund earthquake recovery – or maybe to address the ballooning budget deficit? (Just don’t ask about the old earthquake tax).
The bill would also transfer the treasury-run part of the forex-protected lira deposit accounts scheme (KKM) to the CBRT – a move former Treasury bureaucrat Hakan Özyıldız defined as the "monetization of the fiscal deficit", warning it could lead to **drum roll** higher inflation.
In a column for Nikkei, former CB chief economist Hakan Kara wrote the bank’s “gentle” interventions might signal that officials are not willing to pay the costs of disinflation until after local elections next year.
“The gradualist approach might yield higher growth in the short term,” Kara wrote. “Yet this may come at the expense of a more protracted slowdown in economic activity down the road.”
Le silence de la Merdan
Renowned journalist Merdan Yanardağ was detained June 27 for “praising criminals” and “spreading terrorist propaganda”, charges stemming from his remarks during a TV appeal.
Yanardağ criticized the isolation of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan as unlawful on the pro-opposition Tele1 channel, where he serves as editor-in-chief. His remarks drew criticism from MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli as well as some İYİ Party politicians, underlining divisions in the opposition.
Yanardağ has denied the charges and has since received support and visits from CHP representatives. Meanwhile, the media watchdog RTÜK launched an inquiry into the channel, which could result in a 10-day broadcast ban.
A Gulf between us
In the latest step to repair relations, Turkey and Egypt agreed Tuesday to dispatch ambassadors for the first time in a decade. Bilateral ties have been turbulent since 2013 but rapprochement is now at an “important stage” according to Fidan.
“These two important countries do not have the luxury of staying apart from each other,” Turkey’s FM stated, hinting at further efforts to restore political and economic ties.
In other rapprochement news, Erdoğan will soon visit the UAE as he looks to secure Gulf cash flows with expected stops in Saudi Arabia and Qatar during a regional tour.
This comes after Turkey’s top economy officials visited the UAE last month as part of their first foreign trip and an UAE delegation also visited Ankara this week to discuss energy, defense and transportation investments.
And food writer Vedat Milor brought back the old-time Turkish debate on which drink pairs better with food: wine or rakı? The answer is yes. Elsewhere from the bayram break …
Kurban or not, no cow can escape Iğdır’s best excavator-for-hire.
Turkey’s Environment and Urbanization Minister wants to ban construction on fault lines, literally fulfilling Şimşek's pledge to return to ‘rational ground’.
Sarıgül told Elon Musk not to mess with Twitter, but the message didn’t stick without his usual slaps or step-by-step delivery.
After thousands of complaints about İstanbul taxi drivers, the municipality began installing noise-reducing asphalt on its roads to absorb all that unattended rage.
Having learned about this 1970s Turkish Spider-Man film, we decided to launch a newsletter focused on classic Turkish spoof films. No joke. Send your CV to write it.
Speed reads
Sanctioned Russian Cargo Ships Made More Than 100 Stops at Turkish Ports (WSJ)
Billionaire in Erdoğan’s shadow thrives from Turkey’s gold trade (Bloomberg)
Turkey’s conservatives tighten grip on schools as imams appointed ‘spiritual counselors’ (Al-Monitor)
Turkey ranks one of the 10 worst countries for workers (Duvar)
Report: Turkey Copying Russia, Using Courts to Target Journalists (Balkan Insight)
World Bank approves one-billion-dollar financing for Turkey's earthquake reconstruction (Bianet)
Pro-Erdoğan protesters target İstanbul exhibition deemed “LGBT propaganda” (Hyperallergic)
Demonstration against Syrian refugees in Turkey's industrial hotbed (Bianet)
Water level in İstanbul dams at the lowest level in 9 years (GN)
İstanbul’s bellydancers and DJs fight for survival as Turkey’s night-time economy takes a hit (Guardian)
Weekend reads
How Erdoğan’s Populism Won Again
Placing Turkey’s government among the world’s competitive authoritarian regimes, Berk Esen and Şebnem Gümüşçü write: “As his capacity to deliver economic well-being shrinks, Erdoğan is likely to pursue a more divisive and repressive identity politics targeting groups such as women, Kurds, and LGBTQ persons.” (Journal of Democracy)
Turkish Foreign Policy Under New Management
Forecasting Turkey’s economic and foreign policy outlook, analyst Soli Özel makes the case for more EU-Turkey cooperation, writing: “From a more strategic perspective … cooperation with Turkey is not a necessity but an imperative. This ought not be done on a transactional basis.” (Institut Montaigne)
Turkey’s Geopolitical Role. Between National Ambitions, Western Anchors and Russian Sway
Along similar lines, analyst Marc Pierini offers a more expansive review of Ankara’s recent foreign policy stances with a focus on the Russia-Ukraine balancing act, arguing the summer of 2023 “presents a unique opportunity” for renewed Turkey-Europe dialogue. (Carnegie)
Towards a different approach to Greek-Turkish relations: The logic of mutual benefit with emphasis on the environmental dimension
Encouraging energy and environmental cooperation between Ankara and Athens, academics Andreas Stergiou, Theodoros Tsikas, Konstantinos Tsitselikis and Alexis Heraclides write: “A number of issues seem unsolvable, but this really is not the case.” (ELIAMEP)
Week ahead
Jul 7 The Saturday Mothers trial, involving 46 defendants, resumes in İstanbul
Jul 7 Trial of journalist Rüstem Batum resumes in İstanbul
Jul 7 Trial of journalist Yağmur Kaya resumes in İstanbul
Jul 10 Trial of journalist Öznur Değer resumes in Ankara
Jul 11 Trial of 18 journalists starts in Diyarbakır
Jul 11 Trial of journalist Rozerin Gültekin resumes in Bursa
Jul 11-12 NATO hosts its 2023 summit in Vilnius, Lithuania
Jul 13 Trial of journalist Nagihan Yılkın resumes in İstanbul
Jul 13 Trial of journalists İrfan Tunççelik and Ümit Turhan Coşkun resumes in Istanbul
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk