Survey-val of the fittest: A guide to Turkish pollsters
Survey-val of the fittest: A guide to Turkish pollsters
As Turkey’s critical elections near, many are asking critical questions about Turkish polling companies. Some pollsters are respected, others require more scrutiny, but which ones?
Below, I give a brief rundown on Turkey’s top polling companies and compare their past data with official results from previous elections to get a sense of their record for accuracy.
In the process, you’ll see many key figures in this sector have clear ties with political parties. For example, some of them ran office with party ties and then returned to polling after they failed. This obviously creates some trust issues.
A good number of pollsters are credible, but when they’re not, their data can both mislead the public and public officials. Inaccurate surveys can not only dissuade voters from casting ballots due to overconfidence, but can also keep voters from supporting parties they perceive as destined to lose.
In both cases, a false sense of voting trends can splash into the minds of party executives, as well, making them believe a campaign is successful, when it’s actually failing.
Overview: Survey of the land
Looking at Turkey’s public polling sector, Bekir Ağırdır, former general director of KONDA research, said there have been positive developments in recent years, but a diverse set of problems remain, which are not necessarily the fault of pollsters alone.
He said parties and politicians often want public opinion polls to prove their own points, and not to reflect voter opinions.
“They don’t want to know the truth. If their campaigns don’t give the positive results they seek, they’ll need to explain themselves to their executives,” Ağırdır told Turkey recap. “Unfortunately, some polling companies accept their demands.”
Noting polling is a science, Ağırdır also said its techniques and methods are key to producing useful results. Sampling sizes along with the inclusion of different age groups and political affiliations are essential to creating surveys that reflect reality.
Ağırdır said some pollsters, past and present, have found participants through Twitter, which is not a representative sampling pool. Timing is also important, he added.
“Think of a public opinion poll like a blood test,” Ağırdır said. “If you check your blood pressure right after climbing a flight of stairs, it will give you different results than when you check it while you are sitting down.”
He maintained traditional field work remains essential to accurate polling, but this comes with added financial costs, saying: “Nobody wants to pay for it. They want real information for cheap.”
That said, let the guides begin:
MetroPOLL is one of the most popular public opinion research companies. It was founded by Özer Sencar in December 2004. The company owes its popularity to frequent research on a wide range of topics concerning daily political discussions.
Director Sencar uses social media actively, and shares results in both Turkish and English, making MetroPOLL one of the most commonly mentioned public opinion companies.
MetroPOLL is thought to be ideologically closer to opposition parties. Columnist Abdülkadir Selvi, who is known for his close ties with the AKP, labeled Sencar as the “dissident pollster.”
On Sept. 3, 2016, Sencar was briefly detained in Ankara as a part of a post-coup attempt investigation into the Gülenist movement, but was released a couple of days later.
The fact MetroPOLL releases survey results frequently is another topic of contention, but a source who requested anonymity told Turkey recap MetroPOLL is among the companies that does the most field work.
On their website, MetroPOLL also mentions 1,250 people are surveyed on average for their political surveys.
MetroPOLL’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 49.2 percent
İnce: 26.2 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percentParliamentary elections
People’s Alliance: 46 percent
Official result: 53.7 percent
Another reputable research firm is Konda, which was founded by Tarhan Erdem in 1986. In 2005, Bekir Ağırdır joined Konda and became the general director.
Ağırdır quit as the general director in June 2022, and Tarhan Erdem’s son Aydın Erdem took the position. Ağırdır continues his role as board member.
In 1977, Tarhan Erdem served a brief tenure as Minister of Industry and Technology in the cabinet of former PM Bülent Ecevit (CHP). Later, he took the role of general secretary of the CHP in 1999.
Erdem, who passed away last year, was never shy about sharing his opinions on political matters and was thought to be closely aligned with the AKP for a short while in 2002, during the party's initial rise to power.
Notably, Konda was able to get close results on its polls in the 2015 June general elections. For many, this was one of the hardest elections to predict in recent history. In contrast, Konda’s polls for 2014 presidential elections were far off the mark, for which the company issued a public apology.
According to its website, Konda usually polls between 1,800 and 3,600 people per survey, and the results are distributed to subscribers only. The company normally doesn’t issue comment or confirmation when its research is allegedly leaked on social media.
However, Konda usually publicizes its election surveys the last Thursday before voting day.
Apart from near accurate 2018 polling, Konda was also able to accurately forecast the results of the 2017 Constitutional Referendum and the 2019 redo of the İstanbul elections.
Konda’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 51.9 percent
İnce: 28 percent
Akşener: 10.2 percent
Demirtaş: 9 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percent
Akşener: 7.29 percent
Demirtaş: 8.40 percent
Optimar was founded in 1994 and its current chairman is Hilmi Daşdemir.
In Turkey, it's not uncommon for public opinion company directors to voice their political opinions, or make their political ties clear, but chairman Daşdemir took it to the next level during a televised HaberTürk interview in March 2023, when he said: “Your chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the candidate of HDP and PKK.”
He then got so angry that he left the studio.
Optimar polls are regularly featured in columns by pro-AKP commentators and Daşdemir is a regular guest on pro-government TV channels. According to Birgün, Daşdemir also got 16 tenders from the government.
A source who requested to be unnamed told Turkey recap the AKP has been working with Optimar, and the company has been conducting public opinion polls for the ruling party.
Currently, Optimar is among the public opinion companies publishing the most optimistic results for the AKP. Their latest polls for the presidential election show Erdoğan leading both in the first round and the run-offs.
The same poll also forecasts that Muharrem İnce will get 4.3 percent of the votes in the first round.
Worth noting that in the 2019 municipal elections, the company put the Ankara race as neck-and-neck, with Mansur Yavaş having a slight edge. Yavaş ended up beating the AKP candidate with more than a 3 point difference.
Optimar’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 51.6 percent
İnce: 28 percent
Akşener: 8.5 percent
Demirtaş: 10.3 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percent
Akşener: 7.29 percent
Demirtaş: 8.40 percent
ORC was founded in 2009 and its current general director is Mehmet Pösteki.
For a long time, ORC was accused of announcing public opinion polls that heavily favored AKP. However, lately they have been releasing some polls that are less favorable for Beştepe.
ORC polls predicted the AKP would win municipal elections both in İstanbul and Ankara. Both cities are now held by CHP. In the 2017 referendum, ORC polls also showed that almost 60 percent of the voters would vote “Yes”, though official results were 51.41 percent in favor.
This led to popular jokes that cast ORC as conducting its research inside AKP offices.
However, more recently ORC has been releasing public opinion polls that show Kılıçdaroğlu beating Erdoğan by a landslide. Their public opinion polls also forecast the People’s Alliance gaining a majority in parliament.
This led hardline Islamist Yeni Akit newspaper to accuse Pösteki of taking money from the opposition to produce these polls.
ORC’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 52.7 percent
İnce: 29.2 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percent
MAK
MAK Consultancy is one of those public opinion companies that has always been surrounded by controversy. It takes its name from the initials of its owner, Mehmet Ali Kulat.
In its earlier years, leading up to the 2018 elections, MAK was accused of showing AKP votes as disproportionally high.
The company predicted that in the 2017 referendum, more than 56 percent would vote “Yes”. Again, 51.41 percent voted “Yes” in official results.
Also, when the 2019 İstanbul municipal elections were repeated, MAK’s surveys showed İmamoğlu beating the AKP candidate by 2 percent. In reality, İmamoğlu won by a landslide, getting almost 10 percent.
According to many different sources, MAK was supported by the AKP and has conducted public opinion research for the party. However, it seems MAK has changed sides since then, and it currently publishes results that would make opposition leaders smile.
MAK’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 51.5 percent
İnce: 24.4 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percent
Avrasya Research is another public opinion research company that has been accused of bias.
Avrasya is founded and led by Kemal Özkiraz, who attempted to run as a CHP candidate for Antalya this year, but his bid was unsuccessful.
Having openly shared his party affiliation, Özkiraz’s Twitter bio reads: “Not impartial, but honest.” He also tends to retweet news stories that focus on the AKP’s failings.
Turkey recap asked Özkiraz, why Avrasya Research was so far off on 2018 election polling.
Özkiraz said the company conducts polls with its own resources, which are limited, so it’s possible their sampling size was inadequate. He also said that 6.5 percent of the people they contacted refused to share their vote, and he believed around 75 percent of those people voted for AKP or MHP.
Avrasya’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 44.5 percent
İnce: 28.3 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percentParliamentary elections polling
People’s Alliance: 45.9 percent
Nation Alliance: 40.4 percent
HDP: 13.4 percent.Official parliamentary results
People’s Alliance: 53.7 percent
Nation Alliance: 40.4 percent
HDP: 11.7 percent
SONAR’s founder and chairman, Hakan Bayrakçı, is a regular guest on government-friendly TV channels, like HaberTürk and CNN Türk.
Founded in 1988, SONAR was one of the first public opinion research companies that foresaw the end of ANAP’s seven-year domination in 1990. As the years passed, SONAR started to be seen as a company with ideological leanings that were closer to the AKP.
SONAR sends its subscribers a report every three months on contemporary political discussions.
SONAR’s last poll before 2018 elections
Erdoğan: 48.3 percent
İnce: 31.4 percentOfficial results
Erdoğan: 52.59 percent
İnce: 30.64 percent
Yöneylem is one of the newest members of the public opinion landscape. Founded in 2019 by Veysi Fidan, the company is known for its ‘Turkish Political Panels’, in which it randomly selects 2,400 people over the age of 18 to vote at 215 ballot boxes in 27 provinces.
The results of these panels are released every month. Yöneylem argues that it shows how the voters' tendencies and thoughts change over time.
As Yöneylem gained popularity, media outlets closely aligned with the AKP have started bringing up Fidan’s anti-AKP social media posts from the past. CHP is said to have had a contract with Yöneylem until a little while ago.
Yöneylem is currently led by Derya Kömürcü, who has a PhD in political science and worked as an academic before joining the company.
Türkiye Raporu has been doing public opinion research since 2019 and its current director is Can Selçuki.
It is one of the newer public opinion research companies and has gained popularity (also on YouTube) due to research on a wide range of topics. For example, their research questions have been: “If you had 100,000 liras how would you spend it?” and “Should politics have a place in football stadiums?”
Türkiye Raporu is also one of the few Turkish public opinion organizations that releases approval ratings for leaders on a regular basis. It releases at least two reports every month and states all their research surveys at least 200 people.
Disclosure: Türkiye Raporu conducted a brief ad campaign through Turkey recap in the past.
Aksoy Research is owned and led by Ertan Aksoy, whose Twitter bio reads “CHP’li”, or ‘supporter of the CHP’. He was also a parliamentary candidate for the CHP in 2018 elections in İstanbul, but was not elected.
The polling company was founded in 2006, with the motto: “The customer is not always right.”
Apart from being perceived as pro-CHP, the company also tends to do polling on problems caused by AKP policies, namely the nation’s current economic hardships.
Aksoy didn’t conduct public opinion polling for the 2018 elections, however they were one of the companies that foresaw İmamoğlu breaking through 54 percent in the 2019 İstanbul re-run elections.
SAROS was founded by Burhan Eptemli in 2005. Beyond Turkey, the company also conducts research in Northern Cyprus and Middle Eastern nations.
SAROS has been accused of showing AKP and Vatan Party votes to be higher than they are in reality.
On its websites, SAROS also notes it has conducted past research for both the AKP and CHP. Public opinion institutions usually tend to keep this information about political parties on a ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ basis.
SAROS’ polling results were not publicized in recent elections.
For further reading, we recommend visiting 600vekil.com, which has comprehensive polling data and forecasts.
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk
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