Threat With The Program
Memes are coming. Especially the election kind after this photo of Bilecik Dep. Mayor Melek Mızrak Subaşı went viral over the weekend, confirming the archetype for CHP'li teyzeler has been upgraded – to Targaryen.
The instant hype pushed Kılıçdaroğlu to make his own meme Tuesday, which was pretty good, but the next day Erdoğan gave us all a stunning pun for our money. Reispect. We Kasımpa-saw what you did there.
Jokes aside, we’ll keep our pre-election coverage coming, as with Ingrid Woudwijk's report this week on Erdoğan’s ‘Alevi opening’. Got a story idea? Pitch us: info@turkeyrecap.com.
Nearly a year after they formed the ‘Table of Six’, Turkey's main opposition bloc finally unveiled its election pledges in a 2,300-point program Monday. With nine main topics, including law, economy, education and foreign policy, the "Common Policies Memorandum of Understanding" lays out their roadmap for shifting the nation’s government towards a “Strengthened Parliamentary System”.
Altan Sancar, an Ankara-based journalist who attended the event, defined the atmosphere in the hall as "low-pitched" since the dominance of old male political figures, as usual, gave people a sense they would hear the same old things.
"However, I found the content of the text convincing, and it fulfilled many people's expectations," Sancar told Turkey recap, adding, the work is the result of more than 100 hours of top-level meetings (and many more for typists).
"A massive amount of effort was put into this process,” Sancar continued. “While evaluating it, one should always remember six political parties from different backgrounds and ideologies came together and managed to define a roadmap. The text only defines the consensus among those parties which will have their separate political campaigns. This is just the beginning."
Here is the whole +240-page program in Turkish, and here is an English “summary” for those who like to paddle their own canoe.
For the rest, the most intriguing points of the program were limiting presidential powers and changing the presidential home address, lowering the election threshold, expanding the role of the opposition, making Central Bank independent again, improving ties with the West, reforming the education system, canceling Kanal İstanbul and sending Syrians back.
What’s missing?
While the program mentioned Turkey would rejoin all international treaties, there was no direct wording for the İstanbul Convention. Topics linked to LGBTQ, Alevi and Kurdish rights were also lacking in the text, as highlighted by many commentators.
Yet according to political communication strategist Derin Koçer, focusing on the program's shortcomings is easy.
"People should remember that Turkey has been experiencing a progressively worsening democracy crisis for nearly ten years, and the country has deteriorated in almost every field," Koçer told Turkey recap.
"Therefore, a realistic political alternative has to eradicate the root of the problems, namely the autocracy, and solve the crises Turkey is facing. The Nation Alliance's ability to produce such comprehensive policies showed that they can do both, and the opposition block consists of responsible people with the will to lead the country."
Political scientist Burak Bilgehan Özpek disagreed on his Daktilo1984 show, Ceaușescu's Thermometer, claiming the main discussion should be whether or not the text will lead to an opposition victory. In his opinion, it won't.
"The Table of Six's desire to continue its existence, maintain unity and produce magnificent texts overshadows the desire to win the election," Özpek said.
According to Özpek, some components of the bloc take elections for granted and believe they only need to stay together now. "There is no time to relax,” he argued. “What the opposition needs is a leader [a presidential candidate] who will politicize this text and convince people to vote for it."
As we wait to hear who that presidential candidate might be – announcement expected Feb. 13 – it seems İmamoğlu fans are not the only ones seeing the İstanbul mayor in their visions. The nation has contemplated this topic for so long that we seem to have opened a gateway to a parallel universe where everyone is Ekrem.
– Gonca Tokyol
NATO Your Own Way
Over the last seven days, Turkish officials added to the long list of negative comments on Sweden's NATO bid, with FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu saying last Thursday a tripartite meeting would be “meaningless” at this point.
On Sunday, Erdoğan suggested Ankara might approve Finland’s candidacy separately: “Sweden will be shocked when we give a different message about Finland”, he said during an event in Bilecik. (Bilecik was having quite a weekend.)
Çavuşoğlu followed up with similar comments Monday: “I think it would be fair to distinguish between a problematic country and a less problematic country.” Then Erdoğan came back in Wednesday, vowing to block Stockholm’s accession “as long as you allow my holy book, the Quran, to be burned.”
Hungary (the other country still to ratify the Nordic bids) rushed to the support of Turkey Wednesday, as FM Peter Szijjarto said Sweden “should act differently” to get Ankara’s green light.
Meanwhile, Finnish officials continue to strive for a joint accession with Sweden, but might prepare for going solo in the background. Finnish FM Pekka Haavisto’s understanding is “that there is no fundamental obstacle to both countries becoming members.” He linked the current situation to elections, adding “the discussion understandably has become heated in many ways in Turkey.”
The heat is felt by Western representations in İstanbul as well. The US mission sent a security alert Saturday warning for attacks against Westerners in retaliation against the Quran-burning incidents. In response, Ankara came with its own warning for Turkish citizens to be careful in the US and Europe, because of “dangerous dimensions of religious intolerance and hatred.”
Then, the US updated their warning Monday, listing Beyoğlu, Taksim and İstiklal as areas to avoid. A range of Western countries including Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, France and the UK followed with similar warnings and closed their consulates to the public.
In the eyes of Interior Min. Süleyman Soylu, this is all part of a “psychological war” against Turkey.
Jets what the doctor ordered
The US Treasury’s Brian Nelson is in Turkey today and tomorrow on a hopscotch trip through the region. In Ankara and İstanbul, Nelson will warn businesses and banks to avoid transactions related to potential dual-use technology transfers, or items that have both commercial and military applications and could be used by Russia's military, a Treasury spokesperson told Reuters.
That line might be linked to the (at least) $777 million in Western tech components imported by Russia between March and October last year, some of which got there via intermediary companies in Turkey, as reported here also by Reuters. Separately, US officials are pressuring Turkey to stop servicing US-made commercial planes used by Russian airlines, according to the Wall Street Journal.
All this to say, Mike Pompeo’s memoir and the dirty laundry inside, is not the cooperation incentive anyone needed. Speaking of which, Turkey’s F-16 deal continues to face resistance from US lawmakers, with Sen. Chris Van Hollen stating Tuesday: “There are going to be no F16s going to Turkey if Turkey is not admitting Sweden and Finland.”
Whether or not the issues are linked is up for debate, but if the US won’t deliver the jets, Presidential spox İbrahim Kalın said Tuesday Ankara would seek alternatives. This might mean buying Eurofighter jets, or the “US fall back position” as analyst Aaron Stein put it, “so Ankara’s threats are sorta being met with a shrug.”
New data from the Confederation of Turkish Trade Union’s (Türk-İş) suggests the country’s minimum wage is far below the poverty threshold, despite a recent 54.6 percent increase to a monthly 8,504 TL (about $450). Looking at basic necessities prices, the study found the poverty threshold for a family of four rose to 28,875 TL, while placing the hunger line at 8,864 TL.
According to the same report, kitchen expenses alone rose by 108.5 percent on a yearly basis, best shown through the traditional recipes in this report, which notes rising food prices in Turkey are far above the global average.
Though we learned BBC Türkçe editors side with the soğanlı menemen bloc in the classic debate, it’s heartbreaking to see the dish now costs nearly three times more than it did in 2019. With similar price changes seen in other breakfast staples, many are forced to change spending habits and Van Kahvaltısı places are worried inflation might put their business in danger.
Meanwhile, pre-election economic moves are following one another. A week after a tax relief program was unveiled, Erdoğan introduced new incentives last Thursday to push foreign currency holders to convert to liras.
The Turkish leader also signaled lower interest rates were once again a possibility during a televised show Wednesday night. This comes despite warnings from big name economists who were expecting policy reversals before the elections.
Thrace your fears
And last weekend brought punny Black Sea Formulaz One racing to İstanbul, but the real show was in Edirne. More specifically, the Bocuk Gecesi festival in Çamlıca village, as captured here by photojournalist Sedat Suna.
Every year, Çamlıca residents dress up like ghouls to ward off demons, but do they ever stop to ask the spirits why they come around? Maybe they just need a place to crash, in which case we recommend the ‘Big Kral’, Antalya’s biggest, ugliest, soon-to-be haunted cruise ship.
But if you really want to send your ghosts running, show them Salt Bae’s new hotel promo video. No one, dead or alive, makes it past the hamam scene.
Speed reads
Gold as inflationary hedge makes Turkey world’s biggest buyer (Bloomberg)
New cryptocurrency institute launched in Türkiye to monitor, develop sector (AA)
Turkey's medicine shortages could turn into 'drug famine' with no end in sight (Al-Monitor)
Court starts hearing 'child marriage in religious community' case (Bianet)
The survivors of Lausanne: Intrigue and rivalry in Western Thrace (MEE)
Turkey's push into Iraq risks deeper conflict (Reuters)
Cyprus needs two-state solution, claims head of Turkish-occupied north (Guardian)
Türkiye might become water poor by 2030: Minister (HDN)
Erdoğan-Rivale aus der Haft: "Ich bitte nicht um Vergebung, ich klage an" (WDR)
Weekend reads
The President’s Man: Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Turkey's Changing Foreign Policy
Outlining the long career of Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, researcher Reuben Silverman places him as more of a follower than leader, arguing “there are no grand ideas associated with him” and “were he to be replaced … tomorrow, it is unlikely that he would establish a party of his own.” (Turkey Analyst)
Turkey’s Kurds: Kingmakers in the upcoming elections?
Researchers Evangelos Areteos and Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere review polling data on Kurdish voter trends, writing at the ballot box, “Kurds will have to choose the lesser evil, because neither of the alliances actually offers them much. Even as kingmakers, the Kurds must still be ‘beggars.’” (ELIAMEP)
Averting a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan
In an extensive report on the current tensions around Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues, Crisis Group researchers conclude: “It is anyone’s guess whether or where fighting might next flare up, but the risk of a reprise of September’s hostilities – along roughly the same lines – is substantial.” (Crisis Group)
Turkey’s New Foreign Policy: Ankara’s Ambitions, Regional Responses, and Implications for the United States
In this 120-page deep dive, analysts Aaron Stein and Nicolas Danforth explore the historic and contemporary dynamics of Turkey's changing foreign policy, writing, “to make sense of these shifts … it is crucial to appreciate that … Turkey’s neighbors have responded in light of their history but also, more importantly, their own orientation toward the regional status quo.” (FPRI)
Week ahead
Feb 2-3 US Treasury official visits Turkey to warn business leaders on Russian sanctions evasion (press release)
Feb 3 Trial of the Saturday Mothers resumes in İstanbul (background)
Feb 3 TurkStat publishes inflation statistics for Jan 2023
Feb 7-9 The Kobani trial involving former and current HDP co-chairs resumes in Ankara (background)
Feb 7 FPRI hosts a webinar to launch its report "Turkey’s New Foreign Policy: Ankara’s Ambitions, Regional Responses, and Implications for the United States" at 1700 GMT
Feb 7 The trial of economist and journalist Mustafa Sönmez continues in İstanbul (background)
Feb 8 Closure trial against the We Will Stop Femicide platform resumes in İstanbul (background)
Feb 9 Trial of journalist Cengiz Çandar resumes in the İstanbul (background)
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk