By now, you probably know the UEFA told football fans not to use İstanbul taxis for the Champions League final. The advisory failed in its aim, but may have sparked a backlash (or at least justified it) among locals fed up with being denied service by taxi drivers. Exhibit A.
Life hack: All problems can be resolved with car-puz.
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Turkey’s central bank has a new top name – Hafize Gaye Erkan – as Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced Friday.
Commentators quickly linked the seasoned US finance executive to her previous management posts at renowned finance companies like Goldman Sachs and the recently collapsed First Republic Bank, where she stepped down from a co-CEO position before the bank failed. Fingers crossed it won’t happen again.
Erkan’s appointment comes at a troubled time for Turkey. Erdoğan’s insistence on low interest rates has dragged the economy into a currency crisis amid soaring inflation. Foreign reserves levels are at alarmingly low, the current-account gap is widening and Turkish lira reached new lows against the dollar.
Erdoğan maintains high-interest rates are to blame for the economic damage, an argument overriding conventional economic theories that just makes no sense. Still, it’s not as controversial as blaming Queen B for inflation, as Swedish economists are currently doing.
That said, all eyes are on Queen H.G.E and the recently (re)appointed Treasury and Finance Min. Mehmet Şimşek to bring the inflation back to All The Single Digits.
The central bank has seen four leadership changes within the past four years, and Erkan now assumes the position as the first female CB governor among many almond-fuzz mustaches and costume-changing Erdoğan-loyalists.
Analysts expect Erkan and Şimşek to challenge the unorthodoxy and pave the way for rational monetary policies, with some expecting higher interest rates as early as June 22 at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The last governor to hike rates was quickly dismissed, but Erdoğan appears to be flashing a green light and may be ready to give it another try.
But, as usual, we’re getting mixed signals. Erdoğan said he “agreed to accept Şimşek’s decisions in coordination with the CB,” while reiterating his personal stance against high interest rates. The result is a wide range of forecasts, with analysts predicting a rate hike between 20 to 40 percent, up from the current 8.5 percent benchmark rate.
This could potentially decrease inflation, create incentives for foreign investment and help bring FX under control, but this all raises additional concerns, according to Cem Çakmaklı, asst. prof. of economics at Koç University.
“Higher interest rates will negatively disrupt everyday life,” Çakmaklı told Turkey recap. “It means lower production, lower consumption. The system will encourage savings over spending. It means lower economic growth. There will be a tightening-growth economy instead. There will be a price to pay, and that will be in employment, for instance. It will decrease.”
In order to avoid such devastating outcomes, which could plunge Turkey into a deep recession ahead of March 2024 municipal elections, Çakmaklı believes interest rates should be adjusted slowly, adding a recalibration of other regulations will be just as crucial:
“The foreign exchange deficit is also a problem. You need to have foreign exchange reserves so that it is sustainable. Selling reserves to prevent exchange rates from going up is not working anymore.”
He added, “In the meantime, there are capital controls like the current limitations on banks over their FX assets while they are able to acquire treasury bonds. Lowering interest rates should be the priority in going back to normal but then all these other measures should be lifted.”
– Verda Uyar
Turkish, Swedish, Finnish and NATO officials met in Ankara Wednesday to discuss Stockholm’s NATO accession bid, but it seems like the Turkish government is not going to budge yet.
Last week, Swedish prosecutors charged a Turkish citizen for gun crimes and raising money for the PKK, and according to Sweden's prosecution authority, it was the first time anyone had been charged in the country for attempting to provide financing to the PKK.
The Swedish government Monday also approved the extradition of a Turkish citizen charged with drug trafficking who is allegedly a self-proclaimed “PKK supporter”.
Yet even though Sweden's chief negotiator Oscar Stenstrom was optimistic about the progress and his 'persuading power' over counterparts, Erdoğan was far from being impressed.
During his return from his first post-election trip abroad to North Cyprus and Azerbaijan, Erdoğan told Turkish journalists Tuesday that Sweden "shouldn't expect too much" from the NATO meeting next month in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Referring to recent protests in Stockholm, Erdoğan said Sweden needs to find a way to stop “terrorist propaganda” before Ankara can support its NATO bid.
"The new Turkish demand is that [Sweden] restricts freedom of expression and assembly by prohibiting the display of PKK flags," Paul T. Levin, director of Stockholm University's Institute for Turkish Studies, tweeted, adding he doubted Sweden would change its strong freedom of expression traditions "to appease Erdoğan."
Turkey's long-ago-announced "new" Syria operation has been on hold, but according to reporting from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), it looks like a summer storm might be brewing.
A Syrian opposition war monitor reported Turkish shelling in Aleppo province hit a Russian vehicle Monday. Turkey denied the claims, and Moscow has yet to mention it, but according to SOHR and several other sources, one Russian soldier died and several others were wounded.
In addition, the group reported Turkish drone strikes continue in northern Syria, and Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced Monday a total of twelve "terrorists" were killed during operations in the region.
Meanwhile, the KCK – The Kurdistan Communities Union, an umbrella organization of several groups, including the PKK – announced the PKK would end a ceasefire with Turkey implemented after the Feb. 6 earthquakes, which was extended during the election period.
That said, the deputy foreign ministers of Russia, Syria, Iran and Turkey will have a lot to talk about during the summit in Astana next week.
Kemal or Nothing
On the domestic front, Fahrettin Altun was reappointed as communications director, as TRT announced a documentary titled Metamorfoz, which analyst Sinan Ciddi said is “dedicated to the delegitimization and dehumanization of #OsmanKavala.”
This comes as the Interior Ministry ramps up the pressure on İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu with another court case and CHP head Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu reportedly told confidants he won’t run for CHP leadership again, though he didn’t show any intent of stepping down during an interview with Sözcü TV.
“There has not been any regret,” KK said during the broadcast. “Everything that was done was right.”
He repeatedly avoided answering questions about resigning, and showed little introspection and self-criticism on the question of why the opposition lost.
KK blamed the uneven playing field and the fact that all state powers were in Erdoğan’s hands. Ultimately, he said the opposition lost because they couldn’t convince voters in the countryside, without going into further details.
Sözcü journalists also confronted him with İmamoğlu’s call for change, which the mayor repeated this week. Pressed on whether he would run to lead the CHP again, KK said “the person” was not important, that it was up to the party and the general assembly, adding much had changed in the CHP board, even though many of his loyalists are among the new appointees.
In the latest episode of Turkey Book Talk, political comms strategist Derin Koçer said the CHP believes their vote will not decrease whatever they do.
“I think the failure to change and the persistence of the people that are responsible for losing reflects this mind-set,” he argued. “What [KK] is risking by not changing and not quitting, is giving more popularity towards this anti-establishment movement,” Koçer added, referring to candidates like Sinan Oğan or parties like Zafer Party.
Meanwhile on Twitter, KK keeps tweeting like nothing happened, prompting observers to say the CHP is broken. His latest congratulatory messages to various football clubs earned him the nickname “maçkolik kemal”, a variation of an earlier video where KK was welcomed in a village.
Quake zone updates
Turkey recap was recently in the quake zone, where many people are complaining about snakes. Yes, tent dwellers say they’re increasingly spotting serpents in or near their shelters, and some have begun pouring sulfur around their living areas, which apparently helps keep them away.
The sight of construction cranes is another new trend as reconstruction begins in some areas. Still, rubble removal is far from over and this process has interrupted water lines in Hatay, where access to water remains a problem and many tent dwellers depend on truck deliveries.
There’s also the fast-coming summer heat, which can turn some tents into saunas in unshaded areas. In response, NGOs have begun distributing fans to tent camps, while trying to move tent dwellers to containers, some of which are equipped with air conditioning.
Asked what they needed most now, displaced residents in Adıyaman said: containers or a safe place to live, citing the snakes, but many also wanted to stay near their homes and communities, as they have built and relied on community support networks since the earthquakes.
“We learned how to share again,” one survivor in Adıyaman said.
E-bloodlet
E-devlet was always too good to be trusted. Meaning ‘e-state’, the Turkish government portal stores everything from medical exam results to financial and real estate details in a central data bank, much of which is now available to anyone willing to pay certain websites for access to millions of Turkish citizen’s highly personal information, including Erdoğan’s.
Turkey had data breaches before, but experts say this is not only the nation’s largest data leak ever, but it’s also the most up-to-date. As a result, we can expect an uptick in fraud cases, according to Yaman Akdeniz, a law professor at Bilgi University.
In response, some MPs have brought the data leak to the parliamentary agenda. Meanwhile, Veysel Ok, co-director of the Media and Law Studies Association (MLSA), filed lawsuits against the Interior Ministry, which he said is responsible for safeguarding citizens’ data.
“So far, there hasn't been any response or statement from the government,” Ok told Turkey recap. “We initiated these lawsuits to hold the responsible parties accountable and ensure the security of the citizens.”
Asked what can be done to prevent another large data leak in the future, Ok responded:
“The primary step here should be to uncover how these data breaches happened. Government officials should conduct internal investigations to identify any negligence or intent behind the breaches.”
He added, “The e-Government system itself is problematic. Centralizing all the data, collecting it in one place, and granting access to numerous individuals create significant vulnerabilities for data breaches.”
Petrohollers
And watching live updates of rising petrol prices at gas stations is now a joyful social activity, proving Turkish citizens can make the best of any shituation, kind of like these students who figured out how to make paper from cow manure.
In other news: İstanbul police seized $1 billion in counterfeit money and didn’t even lay on it. A few days later, İstanbul police also seized 530 kgs of meth, which is probably worth more than a $1 billion depending on the cook.
Speaking of cooks, the man known for “bouncing flakes of salt off his forearm on to food” is closing Salt Bae Burger in New York after it was dubbed the city’s worst restaurant. Or as he would put it: “Kapatuccino.”
Speed reads
Afghan migrants kidnapped and tortured on Iran-Turkey border (BBC)
Justice Minister says MP Can Atalay’s case outside scope of parliamentary immunity (Duvar)
Turkey uses journalists to silence critics in exile (Coda)
Kuwait signs contract with Turkey to buy $367 mln worth of drones (Reuters)
In first for Turkey, National Security Council addresses Syrian refugee return (Al-Monitor)
Italian special forces storm Turkish cargo ship after attempted hijack (Guardian)
Turkey raises Bosphorus crossing tariffs to boost foreign currency inflow (Bianet)
ECHR finds rights violation in penalty imposed on former HDP MP Osman Baydemir over ‘Kurdistan’ remark (Duvar)
Turkey's Erdoğan runs soccer diplomacy with UAE, Libya at Champions League final (Al-Monitor)
Erdoğan proposes to open consulate in Shusha “to send a message to Armenia and the world" (GN)
Weekend reads
The governance structure of Turkish-controlled Afrin
Researcher Alexander McKeever details Afrin’s chaotic security environment since March 2018, writing: “This is largely the result of the governance structure developed by Turkey … and most notably, the enduring failure of the Syrian National Army to cohere into a unified military body.” (This Week in Northern Syria)
The limits of human rights law in an authoritarian context: Torture and impunity in Turkey
The “AKP government effectively owned the legacy of state violence” writes human rights scholar Dilek Kurban, outlining the country’s record on torture, rights violations, ill treatment of vulnerable groups and legal repression of human rights defenders despite the international laws Ankara has ratified. (MEI)
Erdoğan’s third term: Strengthening EU support for Syrian refugees in Türkiye
Analyst Anastasia Karatzas argues the EU-Turkey migration agreement should be reassessed in light of the growing anti-refugee rhetoric in Turkey, writing EU support remains crucial but should focus on encouraging long-term integration of refugees into Turkish society rather than a repatriation alternative. (European Policy Center)
Nationalists Abroad
Looking at diaspora voters, Ian Buruma writes Erdoğan’s rhetoric appeals to “immigrants grappling with fragile identities, which is why he has urged Turkish citizens abroad to resist assimilation. This probably makes life for the immigrants worse, but it helps to get Erdoğan elected. And that is the point.” (PS)
Week ahead
June 15-16 NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels
June 20 Trial of KCK Press journalists resumes in İstanbul
June 21 Trial of Ceren Sözeri and the Evrensel newspaper resumes in İstanbul
June 21 Russia, Syria, Iran and Turkey hold a summit in Astana
June 22 Trial of writer Ahmet Altan resumes in İstanbul
June 22 Trial of TV anchor Sedef Kabaş resumes in İstanbul
June 22 Central Bank MPC announces interest rate decision
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Diego Cupolo, co-founder + editor @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, freelance journalist @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, freelance journalist @deingrid
Verda Uyar, freelance journalist @verdauyar
Gökalp Badak, editorial intern @gklpbdk